msueconВестник Московского университета. Серия 6. ЭкономикаLomonosov Economics Journal0130-0105MSUPRESS10.55959/MSU0130-0105-6-59-1-5msuecon-1277Research ArticleДЕМОГРАФИЯDEMOGRAPHIC STUDIES«Старые» и «молодые» провинции Китая: возрастная структура и экономический рост“Old” and “young” Chinese provinces: age structure and economic growthhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-7567-3184КазбековаЗ. Г.KazbekovaZ. G.

Казбекова Зарина Германовна — научный сотрудник, Экономический факультет

Москва

Moscow

kazbekova@econ.msu.ruhttps://orcid.org/0009-0005-5213-411XЛюЮ.LiuYu.

Лю Юйхань — магистрант

Шэньчжэнь

Shenzhen

liuyh@smbu.edu.cnhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-3958-6630КалабихинаИ. Е.KalabikhinaI. E.

Калабихина Ирина Евгеньевна — д.э.н., профессор, зав. кафедрой народонаселения, Экономический факультет

Москва

Moscow

kalabikhina@econ.msu.ruМосковский государственный университет имени М.В. ЛомоносоваРоссияLomonosov Moscow State UniversityRussian FederationСовместный университет МГУ-ППИКитайShenzhen MSU-BIT UniversityChina20242201202459196121Copyright © Казбекова З.Г., Лю Ю., Калабихина И.Е., 20242024Казбекова З.Г., Лю Ю., Калабихина И.Е.Kazbekova Z.G., Liu Y., Kalabikhina I.E.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://msuecon.elpub.ru/jour/article/view/1277

Старение населения — серьезный вызов экономическому развитию — быстрыми темпами развивается в Китае в XXI в. Задачи настоящей работы включают: 1) выявление степени старения и вклада демографических факторов в старение населения в различных провинциях Китая; 2) установление связи между возрастной структурой населения и темпами роста ВРП на душу населения в провинциях КНР в 2002–2021 гг.; 3) оценка динамики демографического дивиденда в Китае в последние десятилетия. Для решения поставленных задач авторы используют методы демографического и регрессионного анализа с использованием данных официального статистического органа КНР. В работе выявлены существенные различия в уровне старения населения разных провинций Китая. Отличаются и основные демографические факторы старения. В одних провинциях важный вклад в рассматриваемый период вносят изменения в рождаемости, в других — в смертности. Подтверждена статистически значимая отрицательная связь между темпами прироста реального ВРП на душу населения и коэффициентом демографической нагрузки на современном этапе развития Китая, рассчитан вклад демографического дивиденда в экономический рост страны.

Population aging, a major challenge to economic development, is developing rapidly in China in the 21st century. The objectives of this work are: 1) to identify the degree of aging and the contribution of demographic factors to population aging in various provinces of China; 2) to trace the correlation between the population age structure and the GRP per capita growth rate in the provinces of the PRC; 3) to assess the dynamics of demographic dividend in China in 2002–2021. The authors use methods of demographic and regression analysis based on data from China’s official statistical body. The work reveals significant differences in the level of population aging in different Chinese provinces. The main demographic drivers of aging also differ. In some provinces, changes in fertility make an important contribution during the period under review; in others, changes in mortality make an important contribution. The authors confirm a statistically significant negative relationship between the growth rate of real GRP per capita and the dependency ratio at the current stage of China's development, and calculate the contribution of demographic dividend to the country's economic growth.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.