msueconВестник Московского университета. Серия 6. ЭкономикаLomonosov Economics Journal0130-0105MSUPRESS10.55959/MSU0130-0105-6-60-2-5msuecon-1393Research ArticleМИРОВАЯ ЭКОНОМИКАWORLD ECONOMY STUDIESУстойчивость компаний в глобальных цепочках создания стоимости в период внешних шоков на примере первой волны пандемии COVID-19Companies’ resilience in global value chains under external shocks: evidence of the first wave of COVID-19 pandemichttps://orcid.org/0009-0008-9824-560XЗайцевД. В.ZaitsevD. V.

Зайцев Дмитрий Валерьевич — аспирант

Екатеринбург

Ekaterinburg

dima.zajtsev@yandex.ruhttps://orcid.org/0009-0002-5801-8695ДементьевА. А.DementevA. A.

Дементьев Антон Александрович — аспирант

Москва

Moscow

anton.dementev@bk.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-2405-8106ФедюнинаА. А.FeduninaA. A.

Федюнина Анна Андреевна — к.э.н.

Москва

Moscow

afedyunina@hse.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-1490-779XРужанскаяЛ. С.RuzhanskayaL. S.

Ружанская Людмила Станиславовна — д.э.н.

Екатеринбург

Ekaterinburg

l.s.ruzhanskaya@urfu.ruУрФУ имени первого Президента России Б. Н. ЕльцинаРоссияUral Federal UniversityRussian FederationНациональный исследовательский университет "Высшая школа экономики"РоссияHSE UniversityRussian Federation20250506202560283105Copyright © Зайцев Д.В., Дементьев А.А., Федюнина А.А., Ружанская Л.С., 20252025Зайцев Д.В., Дементьев А.А., Федюнина А.А., Ружанская Л.С.Zaitsev D.V., Dementev A.A., Fedunina A.A., Ruzhanskaya L.S.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://msuecon.elpub.ru/jour/article/view/1393

Растущая неопределенность и участившиеся шоки в мировой экономике требуют от компаний и органов государственного регулирования поиска новых источников устойчивости. Вопрос о влиянии участия в глобальных цепочках создания стоимости на деятельность компаний остается во многом нерешенным в современной литературе, особенно в контексте внешних шоков. Статья направлена на расширение понимания механизма взаимосвязи между глобализацией и устойчивостью компаний. Исследование опирается на концепцию глобальных цепочек создания стоимости и использует различные маркеры принадлежности компаний к этим цепочкам, такие как импорт, экспорт, международные сертификаты качества и иностранное участие в капитале. Методологическая новизна работы заключается в том, что для оценки устойчивости компаний используются не только фактические значения изменения выручки в результате шокового воздействия, но и ожидаемый период восстановления для различных моделей организации глобальных цепочек создания стоимости. На основе данных о 5301 фирме из 29 стран Европы и Центральной Азии с использованием пробит-регрессии и упорядоченной пробит-регрессии выявлено, что неэкономический шок от пандемии COVID-19 негативно сказался на компаниях-импортерах, приводя к сокращению продаж и увеличению ожидаемого периода восстановления. Более устойчивыми оказались крупные фирмы и компании, обладающие международными сертификатами качества. Участие в глобальных цепочках создания стоимости и экспортная ориентация компаний не оказали существенного влияния на колебания выручки и способность восстановить выручку до докризисного уровня. Полученные результаты предоставляют дополнительные аргументы для принятия решений компаниями относительно участия в цепочках, а также при формировании ориентиров государственной внешнеторговой политики и политики в области прямых иностранных инвестиций.

Growing uncertainty and more frequent shocks in the global economy require firms and regulators to find new sources of resilience. The impact of participation in global value chains on firm performance remains largely unresolved in current literature, especially in the context of external shocks. The paper aims to expand on the understanding of the mechanism of the relationship between globalisation and firm resilience. The study draws on the concept of global value chains and utilises various markers of firms' belonging to these chains such as imports, exports, international quality certificates and foreign equity participation. The methodological novelty of the paper lies in the fact that not only the actual values of the change in revenue as a result of the shock, but also the expected recovery period for different models of global value chain organisation are used to assess the resilience of firms. Using data on 5,301 firms from 29 countries in Europe and Central Asia, using probit regression and ordered probit regression, we find that non-economic shock from the COVID-19 pandemic negatively affected importing firms, leading to lower sales and a longer expected recovery period. Large firms and firms with international quality certifications proved to be more resilient. Participation in global value chains and firms' export orientation had no significant impact on revenue fluctuations and the ability to restore revenue to pre-crisis levels. The results obtained provide additional arguments for companies' decision-making regarding participation in the chains, as well as in forming guidelines for the state foreign trade policy and foreign direct investment policy.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.