msueconВестник Московского университета. Серия 6. ЭкономикаLomonosov Economics Journal0130-0105MSUPRESS10.55959/MSU0130-0105-6-60-5-3msuecon-1644Research ArticleФИНАНСОВАЯ ЭКОНОМИКАFINANCIAL STUDIESОсобенности ценообразования сделок IPO в России в «новой реальности» (с 2022 г.)Specifi cs of IPO valuation in Russia’s “new reality” (since 2022)https://orcid.org/0009-0004-1534-9376СегальА. Е.SegalA. Е.

Сегаль Александр Евгеньевич — руководитель практики корпоративных финансов на рынках капитала; Экономический факультет

Москва

Moscow

alexander.segal@gmail.comМГУ имени М. В. Ломоносова / ПАО «Сбербанк»РоссияLomonosov Moscow State University / SberbankRussian Federation2025021220256056895Copyright © Сегаль А.Е., 20252025Сегаль А.Е.Segal A.Е.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://msuecon.elpub.ru/jour/article/view/1644

С 2022 г., на фоне беспрецедентного международного санкционного давления, российский рынок акционерного капитала существенного изменился – спрос на новые сделки IPO стал представлен исключительно отечественными инвесторами (так называемая «новая реальность»). В то же время первичное размещение акций стало на бирже более доступным для российских эмитентов и приобрело еще большую популярность у розничных инвесторов, которые стали новой движущей силой на рынке акций. Более того, актуальность изучения вопросов ценообразования сделок IPO в России подтверждается недавними государственными инициативами по стимулированию российского рынка IPO, а также планами по приватизации ряда государственных предприятий через публичное размещение акций. Таким образом, цель исследования – выявить ключевые особенности процесса ценообразования сделок IPO «новой реальности» (с 2022 г.). Методологическую основу работы составляет анализ актуальных международных и отечественных научных публикаций, на базе которых автор разбирает особенности применения различных методов оценки на примере развитых и развивающихся фондовых рынков, а также осуществляет качественное и количественное исследование сделок IPO «новой реальности» на основе информации об обратной связи ключевых институциональных инвесторов и отчетов аналитических команд банковорганизаторов. В статье автор предлагает свою интерпретацию определения «справедливой стоимости» (как результат многоуровневого анализа компании, сочетающий качественный и количественный подходы, так как она формирует ожидания относительно потенциальной стоимости компании как для эмитента, так и для инвесторов) и методологию применения «IPO-дисконта». В заключительной части статьи автор дает рекомендации по качественным характеристикам для уменьшения IPO-дисконта, которые могут быть полезны новым эмитентам, планирующих IPO, а также научному сообществу, изучающему проблематику российского рынка акционерного капитала.

Since 2022, against the unprecedented international sanctions pressure, the Russian equity capital market has changed significantly the demand for new IPO transactions has become represented exclusively by domestic investors (the so-called “new reality”). At the same time, the initial public offering of shares on the stock exchange has become more accessible for Russian issuers and has gained even greater popularity among retail investors who have become a new driving force in the stock market. Moreover, the relevance of studying the IPO valuation process transactions in Russia is confirmed by recent government initiatives to stimulate the Russian IPO market, as well as plans to privatize a number of state-owned enterprises through initial public offerings. Thus, the purpose of the study is to identify the key features of the valuation process of IPO transactions of the “new reality” (since 2022). The methodological basis of the study is represented by the analysis of relevant international and domestic scientific publications, resulting in the analysis of the application features for various equity valuation methods on developed and developing stock markets, as well as a qualitative and quantitative study of IPO transactions of the “new reality” based on information on the feedback of key institutional investors and reports of underwriters’ research teams. In the article, the author offers the interpretation of the “fair value” definition (as a result of a multi-level company’s analysis, combining qualitative and quantitative approaches, since it sets valuations expectations for both the issuer and investors) and the application methodology for the “IPO discount”. Finally, the author provides recommendations on qualitative characteristics for reducing the IPO discount, which can be useful for new issuers planning an IPO, as well as for the scientific community studying the problems of the Russian equity capital market.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.