msueconВестник Московского университета. Серия 6. ЭкономикаLomonosov Economics Journal0130-0105MSUPRESS10.55959/MSU0130-0105-6-60-4-4msuecon-1951Research ArticleЭКОНОМИЧЕСКАЯ ТЕОРИЯECONOMIC THEORYСтратегии и институты: фактор, определяющий успех или неудачу развитияInstitution vs. strategy: the determinant of development success or failureЛиньДж. И.LinJ. Y.

Линь Джастин Ифу — декан Института новой структурной экономики

Пекин

Beijing

justinlin@nsd.pku.edu.cnhttps://orcid.org/0009-0007-7702-0017ЧжанЦ.ZhangZ.

Чжан Цзытун — постдокторант, Институт новой структурной экономики

Пекин

Beijing

zitongzhang@nsd.pku.edu.cnЛюЮ.LiuY.

Лю Юйсюань — аспирант, Институт новой структурной экономики

Пекин

Beijing

liuyuxuan@nsd.pku.edu.cnПекинский университетКитайPeking UniversityChina2025021020256044585Copyright © Линь Д.И., Чжан Ц., Лю Ю., 20252025Линь Д.И., Чжан Ц., Лю Ю.Lin J.Y., Zhang Z., Liu Y.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://msuecon.elpub.ru/jour/article/view/1951

Погоня за динамичным и инклюзивным экономическим развитием является общей целью для стран всего мира. Лауреаты Нобелевской премии по экономике 2024 г. — Аджемоглу, Джонсон и Робинсон — выдвинули гипотезу, что институты являются эндогенными и представляют собой фундаментальный фактор успеха или неудачи развития. Однако авторы полагают, что их гипотеза не согласуется с кросс-секционными и историческими данными. В данной статье на основе подхода новой структурной экономики утверждается: стратегия развития, соответствующая сравнительным преимуществам, является ключом к динамичному росту экономики и справедливому распределению доходов. Институты, включая такие аспекты, как коррупция, открытость и риск экспроприации, сами по себе являются эндогенными в зависимости от выбранной стратегии развития. Данное положение подтверждается кроссстрановой эмпирической доказательной базой. Наконец, в статье отмечается, что для правительства развивающейся страны принятие стратегии развития, опирающейся на сравнительные преимущества, более целесообразно в качестве руководства экономическим развитием, чем внедрение «инклюзивных институтов», предложенных Аджемоглу, Джонсоном и Робинсоном, поскольку экзогенно навязанные институты вряд ли будут эффективными.

The pursuit of dynamic and inclusive economic development is a common goal for countries worldwide. The 2024 Nobel laureates in Economics, Acemoglu, Johnson, and Robinson, posited that institutions are endogenous and are the fundamental determinant of development success or failure. However, the authors argue that their hypothesis does not align with crosssectional and historical evidence. From the perspective of New Structural Economics, this paper contends that a comparative-advantage-following development strategy is the key to an economy's dynamic growth and equitable income distribution. Institutions, including aspects such as corruption, openness, and expropriation risks, are themselves endogenous to the choice of development strategies. The authors’ proposition is supported by cross-country empirical evidence. Finally, the paper points out that for a developing country's government, adopting a comparative-advantage-following development strategy is more conducive to guiding the country's economic development than adopting an inclusive institution as proposed by Acemoglu, Johnson, and Robinson. This is because an exogenously imposed institution is unlikely to be effective.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.