msueconВестник Московского университета. Серия 6. ЭкономикаLomonosov Economics Journal0130-0105MSUPRESS10.38050/01300105202031msuecon-591Research ArticleЭКОНОМИЧЕСКАЯ ТЕОРИЯECONOMIC THEORYДискуссия об оптимальности целевого уровня инфляцииDiscussion on inflation target optimalityhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-7494-2728Синельникова-МурылеваЕ. В.Sinelnikova-MurylevaE. V.

Синельникова-Мурылева Елена Владимировна — к.э.н., старший научный сотрудник Центра изучения проблем центральных банков ИПЭИ РАНХиГС при Президенте РоссииМосква 

Moscow

e.sinelnikova@ranepa.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-7264-5399ГребенкинаА. М.GrebenkinaA. M.

Гребенкина Алина Михайловна — младший научный сотрудник Центра изучения проблем центральных банков ИПЭИ РАНХиГС при Президенте РФМосква

Moscow

grebenkina-am@ranepa.ruРАНХиГС при Президенте РоссииРоссияRANEPARussian Federation20202204202103324Copyright © Синельникова-Мурылева Е.В., Гребенкина А.М., 20212021Синельникова-Мурылева Е.В., Гребенкина А.М.Sinelnikova-Muryleva E.V., Grebenkina A.M.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://msuecon.elpub.ru/jour/article/view/591

В статье исследуется проблема разрыва между теоретически оптимальным (зачастую близким к нулю) и эмпирически наблюдаемым (существенно положительным) таргетируемым центральными банками уровнем инфляции. В целях сокращения данного разрыва в статье дается обоснование причин оптимальности положительного уровня инфляции, наиболее значимыми из которых являются трения на рынке труда и финансовом рынке, а также риск достижения околонулевой границы номинальных ставок процента в экономике (известный как проблема ZLB). С использованием подхода кейс-стади на примере отдельных стран показано, что учет данных факторов, прежде всего фактора недооценки негативных последствий ZLB, способствует существенному повышению значения оптимальной инфляции и выступает необходимым, хотя и недостаточным, аргументом в дискуссии центральных банков в вопросе потенциального изменения цели по инфляции

The article focuses on the existing gap between theoretically optimal (often close to zero) and empirically observed (targeted by central banks, explicitly positive) rate of inflation. In order to reduce this gap, the article proposes some theoretical explanations of a positive rate of optimal inflation, the main cause of which are labor market frictions, financial market frictions and risk of achieving zero lower bound of nominal interest rates in the economy (also known as ZLB problem). Using a case-study approach, the article shows that ZLB factor contributes to a significant increase of optimal inflation rate in the countries with relevant experience. Consequently, ZLB factor provides a necessary, though not sufficient, argument in central banks’ discussion concerning inflation target.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.