msueconВестник Московского университета. Серия 6. ЭкономикаLomonosov Economics Journal0130-0105MSUPRESS10.38050/01300105202119msuecon-634Research ArticleФИНАНСОВАЯ ЭКОНОМИКАFINANCIAL STUDIESИдентификация чрезмерной долговой нагрузки российского сектора домашних хозяйствIdentification of excessive Russia’s household debt burdenhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-3660-6779ГосподарчукГ. Г.GospodarchukG. G.

Господарчук Галина Геннадьевна — доктор экономических наук, профессор кафедры финансов и кредита

Нижний Новгород

Nizhnij Novgorod

gosgg@yandex.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-5943-4645СучковаЕ. О.SuchkovaE. O.

Сучкова Екатерина Олеговна — старший преподаватель кафедры банковского дела

Нижний Новгород

Nizhnij Novgorod

esychkova@hse.ruНациональный исследовательский Нижегородский государственный университет имени Н. И. ЛобачевскогоРоссияLobachevsky State University of Nizhny NovgorodRussian FederationНИУ Высшая школа экономикиРоссияNRU Higher School of EconomicsRussian Federation20212604202101189207Copyright © Господарчук Г.Г., Сучкова Е.О., 20212021Господарчук Г.Г., Сучкова Е.О.Gospodarchuk G.G., Suchkova E.O.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://msuecon.elpub.ru/jour/article/view/634

Современные тенденции, характеризующиеся увеличением долговой нагрузки российского сектора домашних хозяйств на фоне стагнации реальных доходов населения, свидетельствуют о важности наличия в арсенале регулятора аналитических инструментов, позволяющих идентифицировать уровень чрезмерной долговой нагрузки этого сектора. В связи с этим цель настоящего исследования состоит в разработке аналитического инструментария, позволяющего выявлять чрезмерную долговую нагрузку в секторе домашних хозяйств. В исследовании использовались методы статистического и графического анализа, а также методы сравнительного и ГЭП-анализа. Эмпирический анализ был выполнен с применением данных Росстата и Банка России за период с 01.01.2007 по 01.01.2019. В результате исследования была разработана методология формирования индикатора, позволяющего выявлять чрезмерную долговую нагрузку сектора домашних хозяйств как на макро-, так и на микроуровне экономики. На основе данной методологии разработан новый индекс финансовой стабильности домашних хозяйств и алгоритм его расчета. Предложен метод оценки порогового значения данного индекса, и определено его количественное значение. Результаты эмпирического анализа уровня долговой нагрузки российского сектора домашних хозяйств на основе предложенного индикатора подтвердили целесообразность его использования как дополнительного инструмента диагностики финансовой стабильности российской экономики.

Modern trends characterized by increasing Russian household debt against the stagnation of real income of the population demonstrate the importance of analytical tools within the regulator. It helps identify the level of debt burden in household sector and to develop an analytical toolkit that makes it possible to reveal debt burden. The paper uses the methods of statistic and graphical analysis as well as comparative and GAP-analysis. The empirical analysis is based on data of the Federal State Statics Service and Bank of Russia over a period of 1.01.2007–1.01.2019. The study develops the methodology to create an indicator for household sector debt burden both on macro- and micro-level. Based on the methodology, we develop a new financial stability index of household sector and its calculation algorithm. We offer the evaluation method of threshold value of this index and determine its quantitative value. The findings concerning debt burden level in Russia’s household sector drawn on the basis of this indicator confirm its suitability for using as an additional diagnostic tool of Russia’s financial stability.

финансовая стабильностьдиагностика финансовой стабильностидолговая нагрузка сектора домашних хозяйствfinancial stabilitydiagnostics of financial stabilitydebt burdenhousehold sectorИсследование выполнено при финансовой поддержке РФФИ в рамках научного проекта №18-010-00232 А «Методология многоуровневой системы диагностики и регулирования финансовой стабильности» 2018–2020 гг.The study was funded by RFBR according to the research project No 18 010 00232 A “Methodology of multilevel system of diagnostics and regulation of financial stability” year 2018-2020.”ReferencesБанк России. (2019). Основные направления единой государственной денежно-кредитной политики на 2020 год и на период 2021 и 2022 годов. https://cbr.ru/publ/ondkp/on_2020_2022/Bank of Russia. (2019). Monetary Policy Guidelines for 2020–2022. https://cbr.ru/publ/ondkp/on_2020_2022/Банк России. (2019). 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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.