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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">msuecon</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Вестник Московского университета. Серия 6. Экономика</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Lomonosov Economics Journal</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">0130-0105</issn><publisher><publisher-name>MSUPRESS</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.38050/01300105202157</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">msuecon-788</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>ОТРАСЛЕВАЯ И РЕГИОНАЛЬНАЯ ЭКОНОМИКА</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>BRANCH AND REGIONAL ECONOMY</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Оценка факторов, влияющих на налоговые поступления в бюджет регионов</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Estimation of factors affecting tax revenues to regional budgets</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0496-4523</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Лавренчук</surname><given-names>Е. Н.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Lavrenchuk</surname><given-names>E. N.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Лавренчук Елена Николаевна — к.э.н., доцент</p><p>Москва</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Moscow</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">lavrenchuk@inbox.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3440-5842</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Кирпищиков</surname><given-names>Д. А.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Kirpishchikov</surname><given-names>D. A.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Кирпищиков Дмитрий Андреевич — аспирант</p><p>Москва</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Moscow</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">DAKirpishchikov@hse.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>НИУ «Высшая школа экономики»</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>NRU Higher School of Economics</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2021</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>03</day><month>11</month><year>2021</year></pub-date><volume>0</volume><issue>5</issue><fpage>136</fpage><lpage>154</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Лавренчук Е.Н., Кирпищиков Д.А., 2021</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2021</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Лавренчук Е.Н., Кирпищиков Д.А.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Lavrenchuk E.N., Kirpishchikov D.A.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://msuecon.elpub.ru/jour/article/view/788">https://msuecon.elpub.ru/jour/article/view/788</self-uri><abstract><p>Целью данного исследования является определение и оценка факторов, влияющих на налоговые поступления в бюджеты регионов России. В ходе исследования были выделены следующие факторы: валовый региональный продукт, средний уровень заработной платы, уровень инфляции, доля убыточных организаций в регионе, доля сельскохозяйственного сектора, инвестиции в основной капитал и доля экспорта. В модель включена информация о наличии в регионе территорий опережающего социально-экономического развития. Исследование проводилось с использованием открытых данных по 83 регионам Российской Федерации за период с 2010 по 2017 г., всего 664 наблюдения. Посредством оценки методом наименьших квадратов модели с фиксированными эффектами было установлено значимое влияние исследуемых показателей, кроме показателя инвестиций. Таким образом, в данной работе устанавливаются общие для всех регионов черты в разрезе влияния анализируемых показателей. Полученные результаты исследования могут быть использованы при прогнозировании доходной части региональных бюджетов.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>The purpose of this article is to identify and estimation of factors affecting tax revenues to the Russian’s regional budgets. The study identifies the following factors: gross regional product, average wage level, inflation rate, share of unprofitable organizations in the region, employment rate, share of agricultural sector, investment in fixed assets and share of exports. The model includes information on the areas of advanced socio­economic development in the region. The study is based on open data from 83 regions of the Russian Federation from 2010 to 2017, the total of 664 observations. Through the least­squares estimate of a model with fixed effects, a significant impact of the studied parameters is established. Thus, the paper identifies common features for all regions in the context of the analyzed indicators’ impact. The results of this study may be used in forecasting the revenue of regional budgets.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>налоги</kwd><kwd>налоговые доходы</kwd><kwd>факторы</kwd><kwd>влияющие на налоговые доходы</kwd><kwd>региональный бюджет</kwd><kwd>региональные налоговые доходы</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>taxes</kwd><kwd>tax revenues</kwd><kwd>wage level</kwd><kwd>inflation rate</kwd><kwd>regional budgets</kwd><kwd>regional tax revenues</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Аландаров, Р.А. (2014). Резервы роста доходной базы бюджетов бюджетной системы Российской Федерации. Финансовая аналитика: проблемы и решения, 43(229), 27–39.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Alandarov, R.A. (2014). 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