The methodology of defining scarce resources of economy

The purpose of this work is to develop a methodology for identifying scarce industries based on the system of “Input — Output” tables. The theoretical basis of the study is the basic assumptions and principles of macroeconomics and economic theory. With close interconnection of all spheres of the economy, sectors that are in a state of deficit can have a negative impact on other elements of the system, including those that are strategically important for the state. The reason for the deficit is the inability to meet the consumer demand by the industries that experience the lack of production capacity. Thus, the timely identification of such industries is a crucial task for government agencies in order to promptly develop a set of preventive measures. The paper proposes the method to determine the optimal price, the deviation from which signals the rise or fall in scarcity. The calculation of the optimal price is carried out by finding the point of maximum added value of the industry for a given demand function. The model takes into account factors such as its elasticity and changes in the level of economic costs of production. Model experiments demonstrate the effect of a change in the slope coefficient of this function on the dynamics of the scarcity of industries. We also carried out the analysis of average annual and cumulative deficit in Russia, as well as the peculiarities of the behavior of each of the sectors presented in the “Input — Output” tables. Finally, the authors assess the degree of influence of global financial shocks, such as the 2008 crisis, on industries with elastic and inelastic demand. This model can be applied by the public sector in analyzing the current economic situation and creation of a financial development strategy.

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