Multi-factor model of innovative development of the region

The article considers factors that significantly affect the innovative development of the regions in the North-Western Federal District... The purpose of the study is to assess the factors that determine the change in the volume of innovative goods (works, services) on the example of North-Western Federal District, and building a model of innovative development. Drawing on the analysis of regional innovative development, the author reveals the heterogeneity of growth drivers which require a differentiated approach to innovation policy. Based on econometric modeling, the paper states that the key factor for most regions is R&D costs, while grant support and existing potential are critical for St. Petersburg and the Leningrad Region. Therefore, the author offers a technique for factors’ selection necessary for the construction of multifactor regression models. The methodological basis of the study consists of the provisions of the regional economy and the theory of innovation, considering innovative development as a complex system of interacting factors. The theoretical foundation is based on the works of scientists in the field of evaluating the innovative potential. The methodology of the study includes the analysis of domestic literature, revealing the theoretical aspects of the innovative development of regions as well as the generalization of the results of the impact of regressors in the context of the model of innovative development of regions. In determining the factors that have the greatest impact on innovative development, the author applies the systemic method, which allows to identify the main directions of innovative development of the regions... With the help of mathematical modeling, the connection of the relevant factors with the volume of innovative goods (works, services) of the region was demonstrated. The calculation of correlation coefficients and the compilation of a matrix of paired correlation coefficients have led to the exclusion of regressors that have the closest link with other factors. This decision allows to cover the indicators with a high degree of influence, the establishment of interconnection, the specification of the directions of innovative development of the regions of the North-Western Federal District. The analysis shows that the model of innovative development has significant differences in the context of the regions of the North-Western Federal District.

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