External costs of road transport in the context of the transition to a low-carbon economy: Russian experience

To make the transition to a low-carbon economy and sustainable transport system, to solve environmental and climate problems, many countries are replacing traditional cars that run on petroleum fuel with electric cars. Unlike vehicles with an internal combustion engine (ICE), electric vehicles` emission from operation phase are practically zero, but this is not the case if we consider a full life cycle. In this paper, we briefly describe the electric vehicle market, examine the life-cycle emissions of electric cars and ICE cars, propose a methodological approach to the economic assessment of negative impact of emissions from road transport, carry out a comparative assessment of external costs of cars that run on traditional and alternative fuel. To achieve these goals, we use the methodology of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which allows to calculate country-specific and time-adjusted value of a statistical life, and consider the characteristics of Russia`s energy balance and automotive market. The results demonstrate that, in general, under Russian conditions, electric cars are more environmentally friendly and contribute less to climate change than cars with internal combustion engines. The external costs caused by life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions of an electric car are lower than similar emissions from a traditional car by about 70 rubles per 100 km. The external costs caused by emissions of pollutants from the electric car operation phase are lower than external costs caused by emissions from an ICE car by approximately 20 rubles per 100 km.

1. Autostat. (2022, September 22). Which cars are the most common in various segments of the car fleet? Retrieved February 4, 2023, from https://www.autostat.ru/infographics/49421/

2. Autostat. (2022, May 18). There are 16.5 thousand electric cars in Russia. Retrieved January 24, 2023, from https://www.autostat.ru/infographics/51535/

3. World Health Organization. (2022, December 19). Ambient (outdoor) air pollution. Retrieved January 24, 2023, from https://www.who.int/ru/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/ambient-(outdoor)-air-quality-and-health

4. Dyadik, V. V., Dyadik, N. V., & Klyuchnikova, Е. М. (2021). Economic assessment of environmental eff ects on public health: a review of methods. Ekologiya cheloveka (Human ecology), 2(2), 57–64. 8 8 https://doi.org/10.33396/1728-0869-2021-2-57-64

5. Credit Bank of Moscow. (2022, November). Electric cars VS. ICE cars. Climate effects in the Russian Federation. Retrieved January 30, 2023, from https://www.eprussia.ru/lib/341/5400911/

6. Order of the Government of Russia dated 23.08.2021 № 2290-r. Concept for the development of production and use of electric motor transport in the Russian Federation for the period up to 2030. http://static.government.ru/media/files/bW9wGZ2rDs3BkeZHf7ZsaxnlbJzQbJJt.pdf

7. Order of the Government of Russia dated 27.11.2021 № 3363-r. Transport Strategy of the Russian Federation to 2030, with a forecast for the period up to 2035. https://mintrans.gov.ru/ministry/targets/187/191/documents

8. Sinyak, Y. V. (2019). Problems of competitiveness of new technologies in passenger vehicles (Internal combustion engine-Electric vehicle-Hydrogen car with fuel cell). IEF RAS. https://ecfor.ru/publication/sravnenie-konkurentosposobnosti-novyh-tehnologij-v-legkovom-avtotransporte/

9. Trofi menko, Y. V., Komkov, V. I., Shashina, E. V., Deyanov, D., Gajda, I., Grushevenko, E., & Perdero, A. (2022). A scientifically based forecast of adaptation of the road transport sector to the likely consequences of climate change and possible scenarios of its decarbonization in the Russian Federation. SKOLKOVO Moscow School of Management. MADI. https://sk.skolkovo.ru/storage/file_storage/b013d3a4-d719-43e1-a27b-1732879abe9a/SKOLKOVO_EneC_RU_Transport.pdf

10. Rosstat (n.d.). Prices, inflation. Retrieved February 1, 2023, from https://rosstat.gov.ru/statistics/price

11. Khovavko, I. Y. (2016). Management of road transport: theory and practice. Strategic decisions and risk management, 2, 72-76. https://doi.org/10.17747/2078-8886-2016-2-72-76

12. Bieker, G. (2021). A Global Comparison of the Life-Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Combustion Engine and Electric Passenger Cars. ICCT. https://theicct.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Global-Vehicle-LCA-White-Paper-A4-revised-v2.pdf

13. Climate Watch (n.d.). Historical GHG Emissions. Retrieved January 23, 2023, from https://www.climatewatchdata.org/ghg-emissions?end_year=2019&start_year=1990

14. Cui, H., Hall, D., & Lutsey, N. (2020). Update on the global transition to electric vehicles through 2019. ICCT. https://theicct.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/update-global-EV-stats-sept2020-EN.pdf

15. Delucchi, M. (2000). Environmental Externalities of Motor-Vehicle Use in the US.Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, 34(2), 135–168. https://www.jstor.org/stable/20053837

16. Hill, N., Amaral, S., Morgan-Price, S., Nokes, T., Bates, J., Helms, H., Fehrenbach, H., Biemann, N. A., Abdalla, N., Jöhrens, J., Cotton, E., German, L., Harris, A., Ziem-Milojevic, S., Haye, S., Sim, C., & Bauen, A. (2020). Determining the environmental impacts of conventional and alternatively fuelled vehicles through LCA. European Commission. https://climate.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2020-09/2020_study_main_report_en.pdf

17. International Energy Agency. (2022, Ma). Global EV Outlook 2022. Retrieved January 24, 2023, from https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2022

18. International Energy Agency. (2022, October 26). Global electric car stock, 2010–2021. Retrieved January 23, 2023, from https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/global-electric-car-stock-2010-2021

19. International Energy Agency. (2022, September). Transport. Sectoral overview. Retrieved January 23, 2023, from https://www.iea.org/reports/transport

20. International Energy Agency (n.d.). Countries. Retrieved February 3, 2023, from https://www.iea.org/countries/russia

21. Kudryavtseva, O. V., Baraboshkina, A. V., & Nadenenko, A. K. (2021). Sustainable low-carbon development of urban public transport: International and Russia’s experience. Journal of Siberian Federal University. Humanities & Social Sciences, 14(12), 1795–1807. https://doi.org/10.17516/1997-1370-0859

22. Kudryavtseva, O. V., Kurdin, A. A. (2023). Prospects for low-carbon industrial policy: The case of Russia. Global Challenges of Climate Change, 2, 251–263. https://www.springerprofessional.de/en/prospects-for-low-carbon-industrial-policy-the-case-of-russia/23719704

23. Litman, T. (2012). Climate Change Emission Valuation for Transportation Economic Analysis. Victoria Transport Policy Institute. https://www.vtpi.org/ghg_valuation.pdf

24. OECD. (2012). Mortality Risk Valuation in Environment, Health and Transport Policies. Retrieved February 1, 2023, from https://www.oecd.org/env/tools-evaluation/49446853.pdf

25. OECD. (2014). The Cost of Air Pollution: Health Impacts of Road Transport. Retrieved February 1, 2023, from https://read.oecd-ilibrary.org/environment/the-cost-of-air-pollution_9789264210448-en#page4

26. OECD (n.d.). Purchasing power parities. Retrieved February 1, 2023, from https://data.oecd.org/conversion/purchasing-power-parities-ppp.htm

27. Our World in Data. (2020, October 6). Cars, planes, trains: where do CO2 emissions from 2 transport come from? Retrieved January 23, 2023, from ? https://ourworldindata.org/co2-emissions-from-transport

28. Our World in Data. (2021, November 25). Data Review: How many people die from air pollution? Retrieved January 24, 2023, from https://ourworldindata.org/data-review-air-pollution-deaths

29. Tang, B., Xu, Y., & Wang, M. (2022). Life Cycle Assessment of Battery Electric and Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles Considering the Impact of Electricity Generation Mix: A Case Study in China. Atmosphere, 13(2), 1–23. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13020252

30. The World Bank (n.d.). Data. Retrieved February 1, 2023, from https://data.worldbank.org/

31. United Nations (n.d.). The 17 Goals. Retrieved January 23, 2023, from https://sdgs.un.org/goals

32. Van Essen, H., Schroten, A., Otten, M. Sutter, D., Schreyer, D., Zandonella, R., Maibach, M., & Doll, C. (2008). External Costs of Transport in Europe. CE Delft. Infras. Fraunhofer ISI. http://ecocalc-test.ecotransit.org/CE_Delft_4215_External_Costs_of_Transport_in_Europe_def.pdf

33. Van Essen, H., van Wij ngaarden, L., Schroten, A., Sutter, D., Bieler, C., Maffii, S., Brambilla, M., Fiorello, D., Fermi, F., Parolin, R., & El Beyrouty, K. (2019). Handbook on the external costs of transport: Version 2019 — 1.1. Delft: CE Delft. https://op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/9781f65f-8448-11ea-bf12-01aa75ed71a1

34. Woo, J., Choi, H., & Ahn, J. (2017). Well-to-wheel analysis of greenhouse gas emissions for electric vehicles based on electricity generation mix: A global perspective. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 51, 340–350. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2017.01.005

35. Xia, X., & Li, P. (2022). A review of the life cycle assessment of electric vehicles: Considering the infl uence of batteries. Science of The Total Environment, 814, 1–14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.152870

36. Yang, L., Yu, B., Yang, B., Chen, H., Malima, G., & Wei, Y.-M. (2021). Life cycle environmental assessment of electric and internal combustion engine vehicles in China. Journal of Cleaner Production, 285, 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.124899