World oil prices are a factor in the expansion of Russia's monetary policy

The presented scientific work is relevant because it contains new information about ways to reduce the competitiveness of the United States economy, slow down the growth rate of consumer inflation in Russia, and the expansion of the monetary policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. The purpose of this research is to find a method for creating favorable economic conditions in Russia with a relatively slow growth rate of the consumer price index in accordance with the goal of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Hypotheses: high oil prices on the world energy resources market affect the increase in consumer inflation in the United States; a large money supply in the United States increases consumer prices in the country; the expansion of money supply in the United States accelerates the growth rate of consumer prices in Russia; high world oil prices contribute to a decrease in the consumer price index in Russia against the background of a reduction in the money supply in the United States and an increase in the money supply in Russia. The following methods are involved in the study: search for statistical data on indicators (Brent crude oil prices; M2 monetary aggregate in the USA; core personal consumption expenditure price index in the USA; M2 monetary aggregate in Russia; consumer price index in Russia); testing of time series of the above indicators for stationarity using the augmented Dickey-Fuller test, KPSS test; construction of economic and mathematical models based on the correlation-regression relationship with the forecast functions of the core personal consumption expenditure price index in the United States and the consumer price index in Russia. A scientific study has shown that high world oil prices increase the core personal consumption expenditure price index in the United States, which forces the US Federal Reserve System to reduce the money supply. Tight monetary policy in the United States slows down the growth rate of the consumer price index in Russia and allows expanding the money supply in our country. The theoretical and practical significance of the research is to create a mechanism for the expansion of the monetary policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on the basis of the identified relationships.

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