“Old” and “young” Chinese provinces: age structure and economic growth
https://doi.org/10.55959/MSU0130-0105-6-59-1-5
Abstract
Population aging, a major challenge to economic development, is developing rapidly in China in the 21st century. The objectives of this work are: 1) to identify the degree of aging and the contribution of demographic factors to population aging in various provinces of China; 2) to trace the correlation between the population age structure and the GRP per capita growth rate in the provinces of the PRC; 3) to assess the dynamics of demographic dividend in China in 2002–2021. The authors use methods of demographic and regression analysis based on data from China’s official statistical body. The work reveals significant differences in the level of population aging in different Chinese provinces. The main demographic drivers of aging also differ. In some provinces, changes in fertility make an important contribution during the period under review; in others, changes in mortality make an important contribution. The authors confirm a statistically significant negative relationship between the growth rate of real GRP per capita and the dependency ratio at the current stage of China's development, and calculate the contribution of demographic dividend to the country's economic growth.
Keywords
Supporting agencies: The study was carried out within the framework of the research work «The reproduction of the population in socio-economic development».
About the Authors
Z. G. Kazbekova
Lomonosov Moscow State University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Moscow
Yu. Liu
Shenzhen MSU-BIT University
China
China
Shenzhen
I. E. Kalabikhina
Lomonosov Moscow State University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Moscow
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For citations:
Kazbekova Z.G., Liu Yu., Kalabikhina I.E. “Old” and “young” Chinese provinces: age structure and economic growth. Moscow University Economics Bulletin. 2024;(1):96-121. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.55959/MSU0130-0105-6-59-1-5
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