The correlation between birth year and mortality of Russian cohorts
https://doi.org/10.55959/MSU0130-0105-6-60-5-14
Abstract
The article explains the link between birth year and mortality levels across Russian cohorts. Life expectancy in Russia did not increase since the 1960s until the early 2000s. However, even taking into consideration its growth over the past two decades, the indicator still lags behind the values in European countries. Slow growth may be partly explained by cohort effects in mortality: some cohorts are disadvantaged compared to their predecessors and successors. Using an age-period-cohort (APC) model, the article identifies Russian cohorts with the strongest cohort effects in mortality across six cause-of-death classes (circulatory diseases, respiratory diseases, neoplasms, infectious diseases, digestive diseases, and external causes). The study draws on age-specific mortality rates by 5-year and single-year age intervals from the Russian Births and Deaths Database (RosBRiS) of the Center for Demographic Research at the New Economic School for the period of 1959–2022. For mortality from respiratory diseases and neoplasms, the largest cohort effects are found among those born in the late 1950s to early 1960s. Cohorts born in 1975–1985 show the strongest cohort effects for mortality from circulatory diseases, external causes, digestive diseases, and infectious diseases. The elevated cohort effects in these cohorts may be restraining gains in life expectancy, as these individuals are still in ages that contribute substantially to overall life expectancy levels.
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Maximov M.A. The correlation between birth year and mortality of Russian cohorts. Lomonosov Economics Journal. 2025;60(5):320-352. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.55959/MSU0130-0105-6-60-5-14
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