Russia facing demographic challenges: threats and opportunities

The paper addresses the issue of demographic growth facing Russia, which, against the background of the ongoing global demographic transformation, is assuming an existential importance for the country. The purpose of the article is to examine the specifics of Russia’s place in the global demographic and geopolitical system, as well as the challenges and opportunities generated by the 21st century. To achieve this goal, the article uses a scenario approach that allows us to consider alternative demographic forecasts for Russia and show the country’s place in the case of both development options. The results show that the inertial scenario will move Russia from the current 9th place in the international demographic ranking to the 15th in the early 2050s, thereby losing its status of a giant country with corresponding international prestige. Implementing a proactive scenario based on demographic expansion of the population, Russia will be able to move from 9th place in the international demographic ranking to 7 h thereby significantly strengthen its geopolitical position. The demographic challenge for Russia is compounded by the fact that countries with large populations sooner or later become economic and technological leaders, quickly overcoming the technological lag from more developed countries. This acceleration is based on the technological paradox discovered by the authors, which consists in a contradiction between averaged macroeconomic indicators and stylized facts at microand meso levels. A typical manifestation of this paradox is the China–USA pair, which has achieved approximate technological parity against the background of a multiple lag of China in terms of per capita GDP. Applied calculations make it possible to rethink the importance of demographic advantages of giant countries in a new way, which has long been denied by the orthodox position on the primacy of technology over demography. The findings emphasize the expediency of implementing super efforts on the part of Russia to implement the demographic expansion scenario.

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