General Economy: Algorithm for Forecast of World Economic Crisis (for the Example of 2008)
https://doi.org/10.38050/01300105201932
Abstract
The crisis of 2008 was a surprise for both the neoclassical and the Marxist branches of economic science, which could not predict the exact timing of its onset. The crisis contributed to the revival of interest in the «Capital» of Marx, whose model can be brought into line with the modern level of natural sciences. General economy – a hierarchical multi-level model of the market economy – a significant «upgrade» of the «Capital» of Marx on the basis of the method of constructing the genome of biological species (in it the commodity is not a «cell» but a «DNA molecule») – explains the various micro- and macroeconomic processes in including crises. The model contains an algorithm for forecasting global crises. The crisis is the result of periodic overaccumulation of capital. Harbingers of absolute overaccumulation, or global crisis are investment growth, employment growth, lower investment growth rates, unemployment reduction, and wage growth. Such dynamics of the linkage of indicators was observed in 2003–2007. It serves as a basis for forecasting the crisis and developing an indicator of the danger of the crisis.
References
1. Anan’in O. I. `Ekonomika: nauka i/ili iskusstvo // Voprosy `ekonomiki. — 2007. — № 11.
2. Buzgalin A. V., Kolganov A. I. Mirovoj `ekonomicheskij krizis i stsenarii postkrizisnogo razvitija: marksistskij analiz // Voprosy `ekonomiki. — 2009. — № 1.
3. Gref G. Predislovie k rossijskomu izdaniju // Krugman P. Vozvraschenie Velikoj depressii? Mirovoj krizis glazami nobelevskogo laureata. — M.: `Eksmo, 2009. — 336 s.
4. Kapeljushnikov R. I. O sovremennom sostojanii `ekonomicheskoj nauki: polusotsiologicheskie nabljudenija // Voprosy `ekonomiki. — 2018. — № 5.
5. Nekipelov A. D. Krizis v jekonomicheskoj nauke — priroda i puti preodolenija// Vestnik Rossijskoj akademii nauk. — 2019. — T. 89. — № 1.
6. Fridmen M. Marshallianskaja krivaja sprosa//Vehi `ekonomicheskoj mysli. Teorija potrebitel’skogo povedenija i sprosa. T. 1. — SPb., 1999.
7. Galilej G. Dialog o dvuh glavnejshih sistemah mira: ptolemeevoj i kopernikovoj. — M.–L.: OGIZ, 1948.
8. Kejns Dzh M. Obschaja teorija zanjatosti, protsenta i deneg. — M.: Gelios ARV 1999.
9. Klajn M. Matematika. Poisk istiny. — M., 1988.
10. Krugman P. Vozvraschenie Velikoj depressii? Mirovoj krizis glazami nobelevskogo laureata. — M.: `Eksmo, 2009. — 336 s.
11. Marks K. K kritike politicheskoj `ekonomii. Predislovie//Marks K., `Engel’s F. Soch. 2-е izd. T. 13. — M.: Politizdat, 1959.
12. Marks K. Kapital. Kritika politicheskoj `ekonomii. T. I // Marks K., `Engel’s F. Soch. 2-e izd. T. 23. — M.: Politizdat, 1960.
13. Marks K. Kapital. Kritika politicheskoj `ekonomii. T. III // Marks K., `Engel’s F. Soch. 2-e izd. T. 25. Ch. 1. — M.: Politizdat, 1961.
14. Marks K. Kapital. Kritika politicheskoj `ekonomii. T. III // Marks K., `Engel’s F. Soch. 2-e izd. T. 25. Ch. II. — M.: Politizdat, 1962.
15. Marks K. Teorii pribavochnoj stoimosti // Marks K., `Engel’s F. Soch. 2-e izd. T. 25. Ch. II. — M.: Politizdat, 1963.
16. Mill’ Dzh. S. Printsipy politicheskoj `ekonomii. — M.: `Eksmo, 2007.
17. Nekipelov A. D. Stanovlenie i funkcionirovanie jekonomicheskih institutov: ot «robinzonady» do rynochnoj jekonomiki, osnovannoj na individual’nom proizvodstve. — M.: Jekonomist#, 2006. — 328 s.
18. Nekipelov A. D. Obshhaja teorija rynochnoj jekonomiki. — M.: Magistr, 2017. — 784 s.
19. Rjazanov V. T. (Ne)Real’nyj kapitalizm. Polit`ekonomija krizisa i ego posledstvij dlja mirovogo hozjajstva i Rossii. — M.: `Ekonomika, 2016. — 695 s.
20. Sorokin A. V. Obshchaya ekonomika: bakalavriat. magistratura. aspirantura. — M.— Berlin: Direkt-Media. 2016. - 640 s.
21. Shumpeter J. Sotsializm, kapitalizm i demokratija. — M.: `Ekonomika, 1995.
22. `Ekonomicheskaja `entsiklopedija «Politicheskaja `ekonomija». T. 3. – M.: Sovetskaja `entsiklopedija, 1979.
23. `Ekonomicheskaja `entsiklopedija «Politicheskaja `ekonomija». T. 4. – M.: Sovetskaja `entsiklopedija, 1980.
24. McCulloch J. R. The Principles of Political Economy, with a sketch of the rise and progress of the science. — L., 1825.
25. Mill J. Elements of Political Economy. — L., 1821.
26. Say J.-B. Traité d’économie politique ou simple exposition de la manière dont se forment, se distribuent ou se consomment les richesses. — P.,1803.
27. `Ekonomicheskie krizisy//Bol’shaja sovetskaja `entsiklopedija. URL: http://bse. sci-lib.com/article125647.html
28. Zarabotnaja plata v mire v 2016–2017 gg. Moskva: MOT, 2017. s. 7. URL: http:// www.ilo.org
29. Samaja bol’shaja oshibka `ekonomistov/ Insider PRO, 10.03.2015. URL: https:// ru.insider.pro/economics/2015-03-10/samaia-bolshaia-oshibka-ekonomistov
30. International Labour Office, Trends Econometric Models. Trends 2018. URL: http://www.ilo.org/wesodata
31. UNCTAD, World Investment Report: Annex Tables. FDI inflows, by region and economy, 1990–2017, Jun 2018. URL: http://www.unctad.org
Review
For citations:
Sorokin A.V. General Economy: Algorithm for Forecast of World Economic Crisis (for the Example of 2008). Moscow University Economics Bulletin. 2019;(3):18-41. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.38050/01300105201932
Views:
214
Email this article 