Methods for analyzing deliberate and emergent energy security strategy of Russia

The main aim of this research is to identify the differences between a deliberate security strategy and an emergent one. The objective of the study is to demonstrate these differences using the case of an energy security strategy, to determine the main reasons for deviations and to formulate a methodological apparatus for assessing strategic documents. To explore an emergent energy security strategy (as a set of actions by decision makers), the authors suggest to make the analysis  the events mentioned in the media (press events) and the amendments to legislation (real actions of decision makers in response to external challenges and threats) made in accordance with actual national security objectives. The authors monitor press events based on keywords that identify the main energy security objectives in accordance with the relevant legal and regulatory framework. In order to test the hypothesis related to legislation, amendments authors disclose the correlation between the selected indicators using a model of linear regression with one regressor. The study distinguishes the differences between deliberate and emergent energy security strategies; analyses legislative amendments that reflect the real efforts of the authorities; in addition, the study analyses legislative amendments aimed at ensuring security; distinguishes  the differences between a deliberate strategy and the actual actions of the authorities in the legislative sphere; formulates provisions for an emergent strategy reflecting the real actions and interests of the authorities. The authors reflect the reasons for the differences between deliberate and emergent strategies. The authors build a hierarchy of objectives for an emergent strategy that defines the actual priorities for energy security: domestic economic security, external economic security, tax security, environmental safety. Empirical application of methodological approaches to identifying differences between deliberate and emergent strategies is relevant for participants in investment processes (enterprises and entrepreneurs) as well as for the legitimately elected authorities, with a view to properly reflecting strategic course of actions in official documents in order to ensure the stability of the internal and external political situation.

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