«Shale revolution» in the USA and its impact on the international trade flows of oil and gas

Abstract

The paper determines the vector of influence of the “shale revolution” on international energy markets based on the analysis of volume and price dynamics of world oil and gas markets, as well as energy trade in the United States. The study contains a multilateral assessment of trends emerging from the development of shale technologies. Using regression models, the authors trace a statistically significant impact of the “shale revolution” on the price dynamics of the global energy market. Panel data analysis for the period from 2010 to 2019 shows a direct dependence between the decline in energy imports in the United States and global oil and gas prices, and the inverse dependence between the increase in exports from the United States and prices of oil (Brent) and European gas (NBP). Due to active use and continuous improvement of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing techniques in the second decade of the twenty-first century the USA is decreasing its energy import dependency and transforming into a net exporter of hydrocarbons. It results in the supply disbalance on global energy markets. The ongoing changes in the US oil and gas production are leading to the transformation of geopolitical situation on world energy markets. If a decade ago, the US strategy was aimed at guaranteeing stable energy supplies, now it is the capture of markets and crowding out competitors by all possible means.