ECONOMIC THEORY
The article examines new challenges for regulators arising from an increasing use of artificial intelligence (AI) and technologies for collecting and processing big data by companies. The purpose of the study is to identify an optimal theoretical approach to the regulation of AI use in the field of pricing and optimization of work with consumers. The manipulation of consumer behavior and the exploitation of their cognitive deviations based on the collection of big data, the strengthening of the problem of price discrimination and the risks of difficult-to-detect price collusion in the context of the use of algorithmic pricing are highlighted as new problems requiring regulatory intervention. The main factors that must be taken into account when choosing measures regulating the use of AI by companies include ultra-fast pace of development of digital technologies and frequent perception of them as a “black box”, the decreasing effectiveness of traditional methods of economic analysis in dynamically changing conditions, the need for an integrated approach to solving many problems and coordinating the actions of various regulatory authorities. In accordance with this, “smart regulation” is recognized as the most optimal approach to regulating the use of AI by companies. Despite the fact that its implementation is associated with high transaction costs, this approach allows us to level out the problems of using AI, ex ante reduce the likelihood of new risks emerging and at the same time maintain the positive effects brought by AI. The tools used within the framework of “smart regulation” of AI include the creation of “regulatory sandboxes” and mechanisms for preliminary testing of AI algorithms, expansion of incentives for self-regulation, development of counter-algorithms, etc.
The paper examines modeling price balance in the context of competition between industries. Despite an extensive study of this topic, the question of the influence of production dependence on price dynamics remains open. The authors propose a methodology for modeling competition within the intersectoral balance and evaluate the impact of production interdependence on industries. The hypothesis of this study is that the dynamics of indicators in the presence of production dependence between industries will differ from the dynamics of indicators of independent industries. The findings show that a certain level of competition brings more profit for all competing industries than with its complete absence, which contradicts modern provisions of economic theory. It was shown that with a further increase in the level of competition, the marginality of competing industries decreases. Other industries that provide products for competing industries are increasingly benefiting from increased competition through lower costs. Total output increases more slowly in a situation of independent industries, because in the case of dependence, more output is required for the functioning of industries. The increase in the number of competitors changes the speed of the reaction of industries to changes in the market situation. The optimal level of competition in order to maximize the profits of competing industries is maintained only in the case of interdependence of industries. The results of the study can be useful for the formation of strategies for the development of industries and decision-making at the level of industry and government policy.
BRANCH AND REGIONAL ECONOMY
The trend towards digital transformation, modern geopolitical conditions, as well as the problem of underutilized assets in Russian industry bring the task of developing sharing economy in the B2B segment to a new level of relevance. Interest in this topic is growing not only from researchers, but also from practitioners who are searching for effective solutions in industry, taking into account new opportunities of sharing economy, in particular business models of sharing. Studies have shown that the model of sharing (joint) use of assets in the B2B segment has its own distinctive features in comparison with traditional models of equipment rental: direct lease from a commercial organization, equipment leasing, access to equipment through Collective Use Centers (CCPs). The empirical study also assessed the existing supply of P2P equipment rental (5-6% of all ads for the sale of underused equipment) and the demand for P2P rental (85% of respondents are ready to rent equipment from a P2P lessor). Drawing on the results obtained, the author offers recommendations to create an innovative B2B digital platform of underutilized assets using the author's design template for creating business models of B2B digital platforms in the context of creating / delivering / retaining value and develops an organizational and managerial mechanism for sharing assets of industrial enterprises, taking into account the coordination of stakeholders’ interests. The integration of the B2B digital platform with the State Information System of Industry (GIS) is proposed, which will complement the GIS ecosystem with a new service for industrial enterprises on the one hand and provide an opportunity to use existing GIS services on the other.
The article aims at clarifying the concept, attributes and approaches to the classification of innovation clusters. The purpose of the study is to adapt the concept of an innovation cluster to modern conditions of the Russian economy in the context of global trends in digital transformation. The methodological basis of the work is the analysis of current scientific research on forming and developing innovative clusters, and the regulatory framework of cluster policy in Russia and abroad. It is determined that to date, Russian legal framework does not contain a definition and classification of innovation clusters corresponding to modern conceptual approaches to clustering innovative production. Drawing on the systematized theoretical approaches to the economic essence of innovation clusters, the authors identify four groups of their attributes: scientific and technological, organizational, operational, and economic and geographical features. Ten pairs of opposite characteristics of the innovation cluster are given, the combination of which determines the dialectical nature of its development. The existing criteria for cluster classification are systematized, clarified and supplemented, additional classification criteria are proposed. It is concluded that innovation clusters differ from other types of clusters not only by the integration of high-tech production and generation of innovative technologies, but also by a special nature of participants network interactions in the framework of joint innovation projects. A model of the ratio of different types of clusters is proposed based on the following factors of clustering of production in conditions of digital economy: spatial concentration of production, institutional environment, innovative business networks and digital environment. The authors propose an innovative hypercluster model as a separate type of clusters, combining interdimensional and multilevel approaches to cluster development. The definition of an innovative hypercluster is given, the potential effects and directions of practical application of this model are determined. The results of the work contribute to the development of the cluster concept and the theoretical foundations of cluster policy implementation.
Net Neutrality imposes restrictions on the work of Internet Service Providers (ISPs), which can significantly affect social welfare. This article analyzes the following rules established by the Net Neutrality: zero price rule and the prohibition of exclusive deals between ISPs and Content Providers (CPs). The aim of the study is to determine the impact of Net Neutrality on the welfare of various groups of economic agents. To study these implications, the authors create a game-theoretic model of the ISPs market, the unique feature of which is the following heterogeneity of CPs: one large CP creates a large cross-side network effect for consumers and is able to strike exclusive deals with ISPs without Net Neutrality; many small CPs create a small network effect and are unable to influence prices. The following conclusions were obtained: there are ranges of model parameters in which Net Neutrality increases profits of ISPs and reduces profits of a large CP; increases total social welfare if a large CP joins both ISPs without Net Neutrality. The impact of Net Neutrality on consumer surplus and profits of small CPs at these parameter ranges depends on the exclusivity of a large CP in absence of Net Neutrality. Consequently, certain effects of Net Neutrality may differ dramatically depending on how widespread the exclusivity of CPs will be in its absence. These findings may help regulators better assess the implications of Net Neutrality and make a justified decision on its implementation.
During periods of global shocks in different markets, we often observe expansion of crisis processes, which can be considered from theoretical and methodological standpoint of financial contagion. This paper aims to study the features of financial contagion transmission in commodity markets under the influence of the pandemic shock. The authors generalize the approaches to understanding the essence of financial contagion, show the complexity and diversity of methods for its study, and give the results of modern research on this problem. The spread of financial contagion through the channels of exchange trade in commodities in the context of the pandemic shock is analyzed. Estimates of intra-market and inter-market contagion in 4 raw materials markets were obtained: energy carriers, precious metals, metals as raw materials for industrial production, agricultural products as raw materials for food industry. For paired bundles of commodities, one-dimensional GARCH models are constructed with the allocation of dynamic conditional correlations in the crisis and pre-crisis periods. Financial contagion was recorded with a significant increase in the average conditional correlations during the crisis period. A comparative analysis of the scale of infection allows us to draw conclusions on different resilience of commodity markets to a pandemic shock. Estimates of intra-market contagion show that most susceptible to infection are the markets of ordinary and precious metals. The energy market turned out to be the most stable, the agricultural products market took an intermediate position. Taking into account the effects of inter-market contagion confirmed a high level of susceptibility to contagion of precious metals market, and also allowed for the ranking of commodity futures by the degree of contagion during the COVID-19 period. On this basis, it is concluded that in conditions of a pandemic, investments in gold are not an effective hedging tool. Some agricultural futures (for pork and oats) may act as diversifiers of investment portfolio, since test statistics confirmed a minimum number of cases of contagion.
The paper examines the impact of priority development areas (PDA) on economic diversification of Russia's cities. The research question of the work is this: has the creation of priority development areas contributed to a decrease in the share of employees in the city-forming enterprise and an increase in the number of operating firms? The main data sources are EMISS and SPARK-Interfax. The sample covers data from 279 cities for the period from 2015 to 2021. Since cities received PDA status in different years, the method of difference in differences with multiple periods is applied alongside panel matching. The work tests two main hypotheses. First, single-industry towns with PDA status show a decrease in the share of city-forming enterprise in the employment of population compared to towns without PDA status. Second, assigning a PDA status to a single-industry town ensures a significant increase in the number of operating enterprises. The findings reveal that assignment of priority development area status doesn’t reduce the share of workers in city-forming enterprise among the employed in a single-industry town, but significantly increases the number of existing firms (in the year of assignment of PDA status, the number of existing firms grows by 2–4 % and in two years by more than 8%.
The increased pace of scientific and technological advancement during heightened sanctions regime makes it feasible to offset the severity of challenges associated with falling imports and the necessity for parallel import of critical equipment and technologies. The subject of this study is science and technology sector of the economy in Russian regions. The aim of the research is to identify factors contributing to the enhancement of scientific and technological progress in the regions, and to rank the subjects of Russia for their development in this field by calculating an integrated indicator. The authors calculated the integrated indicator (II), following the methodology of A. S. Ayvazyan, based on Rosstat data, and assessed the changes in science and technology sector in regional economy between 2010 and 2021, using parameters that characterize factors of growth. The main result is the identification of indicators that influenced the development of science and technology. In 2010, two factors had most significant influence on scientific and technological developments in the region: the number of those engaged in research and development activities, and the number of patents applied. In 2021, two other factors played a significant role: internal operating costs of research and development, as well as the number of applied patents. The results obtained have enabled to develop recommendations for policy makers to enhance scientific and technological sector, which include measures for industry and scientific community.
The article explores the determinants and economic effects of interregional migration in Russia. First, using econometric modeling based on gravity and spatial models we identify key factors influencing migration processes in the country, provide current estimates of internal migration determinants, and demonstrate the importance of spatial interconnections between them. Second, we consider several potential implementation options to stimulate migration in the Far East and Arctic regions along with quantitative assessments of the impact of model scenarios on incoming and outcoming migration flows for the regions under consideration. Third, to determine the socio-economic effects of the selected migration stimulation scenarios we analyze the impact of these measures on regional economies using extended input-output model industry multipliers. The findings indicate that expanding economic policy measures to stimulate migration could lead to positive economic effects, including increased gross value added, higher employment, and tax revenues for specific regions. Broadening the range of assessments of socio-economic effects to cover all regions of the country and considering all potential changes in migration flows between regions, including increased emigration from certain regions based on the spatial structure of internal interregional migration, we demonstrate that positive socio-economic effects are observed for the country as a whole. Specifically, in regions with challenging natural and climatic conditions, migration could be facilitated by promoting preferential housing acquisition, improving living standards through direct cash transfers, and infrastructure development.
The article examines the problems of intra-industry trade in dairy products in the Russian-Belarusian transborder regions: integration processes between the two countries have created a stable demand for Belarusian dairy products in Russia that does not contribute to the development of their own production in Bryansk, Pskov and Smolensk regions. The aim of the paper is to determine current trends in intra-industry trade in dairy products in the Russian-Belarusian border region, and outline the prospects for its development in the regions under study. To achieve the goal, the authors use the methods of statistical analysis, Grubel-Lloyd index, statistical observation of dairy products in supermarkets. The authors identify a number of common problems in the dairy industry in Russian bordering regions, such as: low profitability of production, imperfect pricing and competition with suppliers in Belarus. The solution to these problems lies in supporting intra-industry trade between adjacent regions, as well as government support for domestic dairy producers which may contribute to the development of local economy. A promising direction for the development of intra-industry trade in dairy products for all studied regions is the production of new innovative types of products.
FINANCIAL STUDIES
This paper considers the falsification of financial reports at Russian manufacturing enterprises in the period from 2012 to 2019. The factors are associated with the heterogeneity of estimates of falsified financial statements. We examine the evolution of corporate fraud during the period under review with a special focus on the correlation between false reporting and sanctions crisis of 2014. We identify two main lines of corporate behavior in relation to falsified corporate reporting: a consistently «honest» strategy characteristic of no more than 30–60% of enterprises, or situational behavior, when an enterprise provides either reliable or questionable data in certain years depending on the circumstances. For large and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises, the quality of reporting provided has generally improved in the sanction period of 2015–2019 compared to the pre-sanction period. Drawing on econometric calculations, we demonstrate that the main factors associated with provision of inaccurate reporting are the size of an enterprise, and the growth rate of accounts receivable in previous years.
DEMOGRAPHIC STUDIES
The paper estimates the impact of marital status change on an individual’s salary on the data of The Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey - Higher School of Economics. The purpose of the study is to assess how the changes in marital status (marriage, beginning of cohabitation or divorce) affect the wages of men and women in Russia, considering self-selection. We combine several approaches: mahalanobis distance matching within propensity score caliper, the method of instrumental variables estimation and a fixed effects model. The effect of marriage, cohabitation or divorce is estimated separately for men and women. We show that «marriage premium» for men is not the result of self-selection – on average, married men earn 5140 rubles more than those who are not married. The result obtained is primarily due to individual’s unobserved characteristics, which increase the likelihood of both marriage and success in the labor market. For women, the impact of marriage depends on the evaluation method chosen, but motherhood has a negative impact on their wages - with the birth of each child a woman starts to earn on average 3% less. Divorce does not affect the earnings of both men and women, considering self-selection. Cohabitation has a positive effect on a man’s earnings (earnings are growing by average of 4,8%). The findings may be useful in the context of social and demographic policy of the Russian Federation.
ACADEMIC LIFE
The article provides an overview «Current problems of socio-economic development» section, dedicated to the 20th anniversary of Moscow School of Economics (faculty) of Lomonosov Moscow State University (MSE MSU), held as part of a scientific conference “Lomonosov Readings - 2024”, celebrating the 270th MSU’s anniversary. During the section different reports were presented on the main scientific directions of MSE MSU, such as: economic theory, mathematical and instrumental methods of economics, world economy, economic policy, economic and financial strategy development. Particular attention was paid to the issues of theoretical and institutional economics, problems of digitalization, new geo-economic reality and “Russia’s turn to the East”, international finance, economic problems of climate agenda, modeling economic behavior, the role of the state in economic management, theory and practice of strategy development.