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Moscow University Economics Bulletin

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No 6 (2023)

ECONOMIC THEORY

3-23 189
Abstract

The wealth of nations depends on labor productivity (total factor productivity); productivity — on differentiation of labor/specialization; differentiation of labor/specialization — on the scale of the market; the scale of the market — on the level of transaction costs associated with the use of this coordination mechanism; transaction costs — on the properties of institutions that also affect incentives and the ability of subjects to adapt to the changing circumstances of interaction. This is the Smith — North chain, which, denoting the fundamental cause-andeffect relationships in economics and placed in a broad context of economic development, allows us to show both the continuity and variability of ideas of economists who have been developing the subject of economics in the past 250–275 years, but at the same time left without due attention another outstanding work of Smith — “The Theory of Moral Sentiments”. In this paper, we consider the “Smith problem” and approaches to its resolution, indicate the feasibility of a substitute for the synthesis of research approaches, built on several fundamental principles that can be derived from a contextual discussion of the Smith-North chain. The shift of emphasis in organizing interdisciplinary discourse is an important condition for acquiring a new quality of economics knowledge growth. 

24-43 267
Abstract

The paper analyzes the experience of using the Phillips curve to model inflation in Russia, taking into account the specific features of domestic labor market. Based on Russian data for the period from 2000 to 2022, a wide range of inflation forecasting models has been built: both based on the Phillips curve and alternative ones. The econometric tools used are autoregression models with a moving average in the residuals taking into account seasonality (SARIMA) and their generalizations; autoregression models of distributed lags (ADL) and their generalizations; as well as other estimation methods. During the simulation, we use data on inflation, inflation expectations, production dynamics, unemployment, wages, exchange rates, money supply and other variables. The models are compared drawing on the accuracy of single-period and multi-period out-of-sample forecasts. The modelling results allows us to conclude that onedimensional models work well during the periods of stable economic dynamics, but lose in their predictive power to the “triangular” Phillips curve in crisis years. Comparison of models for forecasting inflation shows that in a stable economic situation, one-dimensional models provide a more reliable forecast. However, in the context of structural transformation faced by the Russian economy in 2022, the “triangular” models of the Phillips curve demonstrate maximum quality of the forecast. Although the acceleration of inflation in 2022 obviously reduces the accuracy of any forecast equations, however, the “triangular” model based on the lags in inflation, unemployment and the index of industrial production demonstrates the best results. This conclusion remains stable to changes in the length of the time series used for forecasting, as well as to changes in forecasting horizon. 

44-57 184
Abstract

The paper estimates the sustainability of public debt in developing countries from 1990 to 2021 drawing on fiscal response function. The author proposes the modification of the Ramsey model that considers both saving behavior of the population and the structure of government spending in terms of their influence on fiscal policy effects. The findings are tested on the example of developing countries including the Russian Federation. We verify the model's conclusions in two stages. At the first stage, based on indicators of government expenditures’ structure and savings rate, we identify country clusters using the k-means method. At the second stage, for a certain groups of countries, we econometrically estimate the so-called fiscal response function, that is, the reaction of primary budget balance to debt accumulation in the previous period. We make estimates for panel data using a fixed effects model, as well as the generalized method of moments for a dynamic panel. Based on the estimates obtained, for a group of countries similar to Russia in terms of savings rates and the share of productive expenditures in the total share of government expenditures, there is a significant positive coefficient of the reaction of the primary budget balance to changes in public debt in the previous period. Thus, fiscal sustainability is achieved for the selected group of countries at the federal level during the period under review. However, risks at a regional level may, if events develop unfavorably, have a shock effect on the federal budget that requires an additional analysis of regional debt sustainability. 

WORLD ECONOMY STUDIES

58-77 221
Abstract

Rapid development of economic integration encourages the scientific community to search for models and cooperation mechanisms that could explain the integration processes in the world economy. This paper examines the key models of integration assessment that exist in economic scientific literature — “linear” by B. Balassa (1), “core-periphery” by L. Tindemans (2), “gravitational” by J. Tinbergen (3). The purpose of the article is to determine the most relevant and universal model that allows evaluating the integration interaction in all integration associations. Using the example of the of EAEU, APEC and AC integration blocks, the author carries out the analysis of these three integration models. The study is based on the author's approach, which are determines a set of indicators and defines each model characteristics. The paper highlights the criteria for correlating regional integration blocks with their corresponding integration assessment models and provides a graphical visualization of the models. The findings show that a wide variety of regional integration blocks in the world economy today call into question the choice of one universal integration model from the existing ones. The author develops a new system of indicators which will subsequently help conduct a comprehensive assessment of integration between different countries and groups of countries. 

SUSTAINABLE ISSUES

78-96 205
Abstract

The article substantiates the place of intellectual capital in non-financial reporting of Russian universities. Its publication demonstrates commitment Russian universities to the principles of sustainable development. The issue remains relevant even in conditions of current unfavorable geopolitical situation. The methodological basis of the study are the works of Russian and foreign scientists on various aspects of intellectual capital; the results of evaluating non-financial reporting of universities obtained by the rating agency RAEX, and the survey of non-financial reports of three leading Russian universities. The article reveals the financial and non-financial benefits received by a university that voluntarily publishes non-financial statements.

As a result of comparing international and Russian approaches to assessing the quality of non-financial reporting, a conclusion is made about their methodological unity, while, unlike international practice, the RAEX rating agency does not expect Russian universities to disclose information about their business models and risks. The analysis of non-financial reports of Russian universities shows the dominant role of information on intellectual capital in them, which can be accumulated only in the university's management accounting system, as well as about the incompatibility of reports that differ both in the content of the information provided and in the quality of its disclosure. In order to bring the Russian practice closer to the international one, we adapt the definition of “business model” to the specifics of the universities' activities. We propose to supplement the non-financial reporting of universities with a “financial model of the university”, which discloses information about how the types of capital consumed through educational, scientific and international activities are transformed into educational and scientific products. We have developed a template for presenting the financial model of the university. The results of the work contribute to further development of theory and practice of non-financial reporting by Russian universities, which will increase their competitiveness and sustainability of development.

MANAGEMENT ISSUES

97-108 187
Abstract

The paper examines the possibilities to apply design thinking to building an effective ecosystem model of business. We aim to consider three main areas of a company’s ecosystem business model: consumers, partners and products/services. We believe that prototyping of this business model should be carried out in these areas. We analyze the genesis of design thinking concept and consider the features of forming the ecosystem business model based on design thinking. We study the experience in forming foreign and Russian ecosystem business models, as well as the factors of its efficiency. The approaches used by the analyzed ecosystem companies is, in our opinion, a key factor of successful business in today’s conditions, characterized by increasing digitization and switching behavioral patterns of consumers from offline to online trading environment. This change in consumer behaviour has been observed for several years, but an accelerated the transition to online ecosystems has been particularly impressive during the COVID-19 pandemic and post-pandemic period. The authors argue that the use of design thinking, its methodological and instrumental approaches will allow to create integrated client-oriented proposals, as well as to form new consumer values, especially at early stages of developing ecosystem business models. The authors analyze the success in applying ecosystem business models with the help of the RUSECO index weighted by market capitalization of domestic corporations, which demonstrated stable upward dynamics up to 2022. The data provided by the authors on market capitalization of foreign ecosystem companies also support the assumption that such an approach to the creation of effective business models is advisable.

109-132 175
Abstract

The paper addresses algorithmic management within mechanistic and organic organizational paradigms, and discusses problems associated with algorithmic management from the socio-technical perspective. Based on the empirical data collected during the experimental implementation of algorithmic monitoring and evaluation of sales representatives in a FMCG company, the study aims to answer two research questions framed from the perspectives of technical and social sub-system: first, what is the effect of algorithmic management on job performance of sales representatives, and, second, how do they perceive algorithmic management. Methods of data collection and analysis included in-depth interviews and thematic analysis. Concerning the first research question, findings indicate that job performance of experimental groups of algorithmically managed sales representatives has improved as compared to the past period and the control group, primarily in terms of standards compliance. As for the second research question, two main themes were identified: trust in the algorithm and perception of man-algorithm interaction. Our findings indicate that trust in algorithmic assessment depends on whether the algorithm is perceived as an instrument rather than an independent agent; on the ability to appeal algorithmic evaluation; and on the algorithmic transparency. Key conclusion of the study is that algorithmic management creates a potential mismatch between technical and social subsystems of an organization, and its implementation requires that decision-makers keep their focus not just on the tools and anticipated goals, but on the in-depth understanding of the assumptions behind these goals. 

133-148 174
Abstract

The global crises that the Russian economy has to face contribute not only to the destruction of traditional trade, economic and logistics ties, but also to improving the quality of state strategic management. The macroeconomic situation develops in such a way that centralized planning and regulation of socio-economic processes becomes a tangible advantage and can produce high effect both in the long term and in tactical perspective. The advantages will be given to those subjects of the Russian Federation whose management will be carried out on the basis of a system of balanced measures to support reproductive processes, a reasonable redistribution of financial, economic and human resources and comprehensive programs aimed at overcoming interrelated constraints. The article presents an overview of scientific and theoretical approaches to managing socio-economic development of regions, taking into account spatial and territorial features of the organization of economic activity and current global trends. The trends of socio-economic development of the Sverdlovsk region and the peculiarities of regional management in conditions of increasing crisis pressure are considered. The purpose of the article is to develop an algorithm for crisis management of the region, taking into account the state and prospects of economic development. The authors argue that governance in the region is characterized by specific characteristics, the main task of which is to ensure stable socio-economic development, regardless of the influence of negative factors of an economic, political or social nature using effective tools that proactively affect problems and constraints. The authors determine the necessity to identify the factors contributing to the development of crisis situation in the region, which will significantly improve the quality of program development according to industry and subject criteria. The analysis of socioeconomic indicators of the region's development allowed us to draw conclusions concerning the effectiveness of targeted support by industry and subject criteria, which is currently widely used in Russia.

BRANCH AND REGIONAL ECONOMY

149-169 134
Abstract

An extended use of natural and geostrategic potential of the Arctic determines the relevance of studying the development of mono-cities as key elements of settling framework of a macroregion. GO Kostomuksha has been a positive exception for a long time due to a favorable socio-economic situation and successful leveling of environmental risks. The article examines social and environmental aspects of the activity of the city-forming enterprise GO Kostomuksha. The purpose of the work is to identify the key social and environmental aspects of the activity of a city-forming enterprise that determines the sustainable development of a single-industry town. The research methodology includes the concept of sustainable development, dialectical and formal-logical approaches, a combination of methods of statistical and sociological analysis. The originality of the study lies in the choice of an object — the city of Kostomuksha, which recently received “Arctic” status, which has not been sufficiently studied in this status from a socio-economic point of view. The study is based on official statistics, reporting data of holdings and enterprises, as well as the results of a survey of the population of Kostomuksha. The study reveals that, despite a high burden of existing production on the environment, ecological problems occupy the last place (only 3,7% of respondents noted the environmental situation as a problem) on the list of crucial issues for the city. At the same time, almost half of respondents share the responsibility for the environment condition as personal. The perceived connection of the personal future with the city is higher among the employees of the enterprise than among other residents (78,6% vs. 60%). The conclusion is made about the expediency of a wider media and social networks coverage of such areas of the enterprise's activity as “preservation of the environment”, “social security and charity”, “household welfare of the population”, as well as a more intensified interaction in these areas with local authorities. The results are applicable in the framework of regulating the development of local communities in single-industry towns in the Arctic and maximizing social effects as a part of ESG agenda by large holdings and enterprises. 

170-191 140
Abstract

Labor market processes reflect the economic situation both at regional and national levels. The large-scale economic shock caused by the COVID-19 pandemic showed the need for conceptual changes both in terms of analysis and forecasting of labor market. In particular, the demand for research aimed at finding higher-frequency proxy indicators for modeling a short-term situation on the labor market increased sharply. Scientific literature accumulated certain experience in using it for research of different economic segments, including the labor market, at national and international levels. However, there is lack of knowledge in the mesoeconomic context. In this paper, we incorporated search data into econometric models to analyze the regional labor market in Siberia during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. We selected such keywords as «job» and “employment service” from Yandex as the main proxy indicators. In this research, we construct a set of models based on panel data: pooled regression model, model with random effects, model with fixed effects, dynamic panel data model. The findings show that the search data can be used as a significant factor for modeling regional unemployment. The use of dynamic models improved the accuracy by including the lags of dependent variable — unemployment rate. The applied logic can be utilized to analyze the impact of a wider range of shocks. 

192-213 146
Abstract

The aim of the paper is to assess the impact of technological development and international trade on the level and structure of employment in Russian regions for the period of 2005–2019. The structure of employment is measured in terms of education level, sectoral specialization, and gender of the employed population. The contribution of the work to the scientific literature is expressed in three aspects. First, we empirically estimate the relationship between imports and employment structure. Second, we attempt to econometrically identify the impact of technological development on several indicators of regional employment. Third, we consider the joint impact of technological development and international trade in the estimated models on employment due to the complementarity of these factors. Based on a systemic generalized method of moments we reveal that technological development has: 1) a positive effect on the share of the employed specializing in mining industry, in the activities of hotels and public catering; 2) a negative impact on the share of the employed with secondary vocational and secondary general education, in agriculture, logistics, health care sectors. In terms of demographic indicators, a similar negative impact of technological development on the employment rate of women and men was obtained. At the same time, with growing total imports in the regions the threat of job losses for the employed with secondary vocational and secondary general education, the urban population, as well as those specializing in healthcare sector increases. Expenditures on fundamental research through the innovative development of regions are a factor in job creation. Technological development and foreign economic openness of the region are associated with greater adaptation of the employed population to competition in international trade and technological development. 

INTERDISCIPLINARY STUDIES

214-230 132
Abstract

In conditions of external challenges, each region reacts to changes in a special way, which determines the heterogeneity of adaptations. The aim of the article is to analyze the methodological features of assessing regional heterogeneity of adaptation to the impact of external challenges. Accordingly, the subject of the study is the consideration of the peculiarities of regional heterogeneity of adaptation to external challenges. Drawing on the analysis of scientific literature, the author systematizes and discloses the groups of approaches concerning various aspects of regional adaptation and assessment of its heterogeneity in terms of: adaptations to future changes as a result of digitalization and automation; economic development of regions and financial provision of the population's interests; spatial features of regional development; creation of conditions for population adaptation and implementation of adaptation opportunities. Based on the results of the study, the author identifies methodological features of the assessment, taking into account: the characteristics of the challenge of the external environment, the level of provision of territories with adaptive capabilities, the manifestation of new elements and structures that characterize the changing environment, their inconsistencies with the management context of regional development, the ability of the regional management system to cope with the relevant changes by optimizing regional management on the basis of a targeted impact on the priorities of the elements of the system. The author proposes the use of indicative assessment methods for the implementation of adaptation as a management function, based on the achievement of target development indicators (set by various development programs and projects), which would ensure the selection of priorities and the development of measures to increase the adaptive capacity of regions in order to improve the directions LOMONOSOV ECON. JOUR. 2023. VOL. 58. No. 6 216 of the state policy of regional equalization. The results obtained may be in demand for further research concerning the study of regional processes and the substantiation of specific forms and mechanisms of adaptation, as well as the development of a methodology for assessing regional heterogeneity of adaptation. 

231-246 148
Abstract

The subject of this study is the relationship between state and municipal authorities, representatives of business sector, the population of certain territories in terms of the need for physical interaction between government and business, which ultimately affects the location of the population. The goal is to prove that Russia’s big business itself strives to be physically closer to the authorities, which does not have a positive effect on the processes of urbanization. In its turn, foreign experience demonstrates more effective options for the relationship between state and business that do not affect other social processes. In this work, the author uses statistical method, the method of modeling in terms of formulating the author's proposals, expert assessments, comparative legal method, as well as general scientific methods of deduction, induction, analysis and synthesis. The work shows close relationship between business and public authorities in the Russian Federation, which is due to the territorial location of a large number of people in the area where there are conditions for such interaction. The described situation is not characteristic of most foreign countries. Some variants of influence for overcoming the specified problem are offered. Scope of the results: public administration system, including the processes of state influence on economic entities. Also, individual proposals can be applied in urban planning, solving issues of demography and urbanization. Russia is characterized by a very close relationship between state power and the commercial sector, which significantly distinguishes it from most of other countries, at least in terms of territorial structure. This situation has a negative impact on a large number of social institutions, and therefore it is necessary to take a number of organizational measures, including the use of administration of planning and urban planning activities based on foreign experience.



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ISSN 0130-0105 (Print)