MANAGEMENT ISSUES
The majority of numerous publications on corporate governance in modern Russia examine the development of corporate governance model over the last thirty years and its various aspects. However, there are practically no studies with an overview of Russian research on these issues, on the development of thought in this area, on the formation, changes, and analysis of ideology and culture of corporate governance, and its dialectics. The article presents the author’s view on periodization of such studies in contemporary Russia which doesn’t fully correspond to the history of corporate governance practice in Russia itself, but goes in parallel to it. Thus, three research periods are suggested and analyzed — classical, empirical or analytical, and contingency as well as five stages of corporate governance development since 1992 till the present time. Based on the comparative analysis and generalization of the accumulated empirical material over these years, the paper identifies the major features and problematic issues of each research stage. Changes in the focus, content and culture of corporate governance itself and its studies are the most vital result of more than 30 years history of contemporary Russian business development. It becomes evident if we compare problems of corporate governance in each of the previous decades — from the overview of corporate governance system, its mechanisms and formation of its institutional basis to an in-depth understanding of the tasks to increase its effectiveness in the new reality; from mostly theoretical and conceptual studies to more analytical and practice oriented. This paper is the first step in further comprehensive study on the evolution of management thought in this area.
The importance of human capital accumulation is increasing among the competitive advantages of a company. However, the attention paid to it in the practice of management is not sufficient. Strategic human capital does not form in the long term. This study identifies the key elements that are necessary in forming a human capital strategy. The applied methodology rests on a fusion of theoretical approach to human capital and strategic planning, public materials describing the practice of forming long-term attitudes in the documents of Russian companies and statistical data. The main research methods are a complex approach, comparative, statistical analysis and observation, together with the author's approach to highlighting the format of a real enterprise strategy. The study has shown that currently corporations are considering the concept of human capital strategy only within the framework of human resource management The infrastructure component and other factors remain outside the framework of this long-term planning. However, the researchers describe this concept in sufficient details, highlighting a number of key aspects that contribute to the formation of this intangible asset. We propose a structure and a number of key attributes of the human capital strategy such as urgency, degree of detailization, publicity, etc. We substantiate the need to identify three areas of development in the long term, which are coordinated with other strategic decisions. These include employee development, knowledge infrastructure formation and corporate social infrastructure construction.
This paper examines the methods of corporate management of complex situations in which planning is impossible. The authors have been using and developing the Cynefin method for more than 5 years to deal with complex situations in Russian companies. The article presents the concept of a managerial situation and its various types, such as: obvious, complicated, complex and chaotic. The Cynefin method based on the Cynefin framework (by David Snowden), is applied to support decision-making in difficult situations. The authors describe five steps of its execution, its features, capabilities and limitations. The article also provides an example of practical application of the method in the context of import substitution in the field of software on the Russian market. The paper shows that the method works well in complex and chaotic management situations in which the management cycle is more like the Boyd OODA cycle (Observe — observation, Orient — orientation, Decide — decision, Act — action). The use of the Cynefin method is redundant in obvious and complicated situations where the management cycle is more like the PDCA Deming cycle (Plan — planning, Do — execution, Check — checking, Act — impact and adjustment). Finally, the authors hypothesize the increasing importance of the Cynefin method due to the increasing scale and complexity of corporate projects related to import substitution and digital transformation, especially in the context of increasing uncertainty in the market environment.
WORLD ECONOMY STUDIES
The paper studies the process of regime changes: from low inflation and interest rates in 2012–2019 to high inflation and even stagflation in 2020–2023. The authors selected eleven countries for analysis: BRICS, USA and Great Britain, and four EU leading states— Germany, France, Spain and Italy. The trends examined in the first period reflect the difficulty in determining (on monthly data) the role of classic factors influencing the inflation processes (by CPIs) — monetary policy and unemployment, with energy and food prices having strong influence in this period. In general, the upturn in 2012–2019 was not too strong and created a rather comfortable (and predictable) environment for low inflation. In the period of shock recession after the COVID lockdowns the speed of consumer inflation in six developed countries had tripled. General inflation was affected by energy and food process and formatted so rapidly that such factors as unemployment and money supply growth turned out irrelevant. Having reached high growth rate, inflation moved wages up and fixed both its rate (one side elasticity) and dynamics. Core inflation index (manufactured goods) grew in parallel with unit labor cost, which entailed cost-push inflation effect. Growing interest rates were designed to slow down inflation by squeezing economic activity, which was not that simple in terms of ULC in the short run.
DEMOGRAPHIC STUDIES
Population aging, a major challenge to economic development, is developing rapidly in China in the 21st century. The objectives of this work are: 1) to identify the degree of aging and the contribution of demographic factors to population aging in various provinces of China; 2) to trace the correlation between the population age structure and the GRP per capita growth rate in the provinces of the PRC; 3) to assess the dynamics of demographic dividend in China in 2002–2021. The authors use methods of demographic and regression analysis based on data from China’s official statistical body. The work reveals significant differences in the level of population aging in different Chinese provinces. The main demographic drivers of aging also differ. In some provinces, changes in fertility make an important contribution during the period under review; in others, changes in mortality make an important contribution. The authors confirm a statistically significant negative relationship between the growth rate of real GRP per capita and the dependency ratio at the current stage of China's development, and calculate the contribution of demographic dividend to the country's economic growth.
SUSTAINABLE ISSUES
The publication of non-financial reporting has gained a wide popularity among the transnational corporations and the largest national companies over the past 20 years. The authors argue that for companies aiming to achieve the leading positions it is crucial to demonstrate an active social, environmental, and educational position, disclosing information on non-financial aspects in appropriate reporting forms. An increasing number of studies is focused on exploring the impact of non-financial factors on companies’ efficiency, strengthening their competitiveness. Nevertheless, not all aspects have been identified, the industry aspects of the issue have not been sufficiently studied, with a small number of publications aimed at studying the ESG-transformation of the Russian companies. The purpose of the article is to identify the correlation between the number of pages and languages of non-financial reporting on market capitalization of the Russian and foreign companies with regression analysis as a methodological basis of the study. The findings demonstrate the correlation between the form of presentation of non-financial information and a financial indicator of company's performance such as market capitalization. More concise information on company results, aspects of development strategy, the degree of impact on the environment and society has a positive effect on market capitalization of companies. The authors argue that the companies with the largest market capitalization generate non-financial reports only in English. The study identifies similar patterns for Russian and foreign companies.
BRANCH AND REGIONAL ECONOMY
The purpose of this work is to develop a methodology for identifying scarce industries based on the system of “Input — Output” tables. The theoretical basis of the study is the basic assumptions and principles of macroeconomics and economic theory. With close interconnection of all spheres of the economy, sectors that are in a state of deficit can have a negative impact on other elements of the system, including those that are strategically important for the state. The reason for the deficit is the inability to meet the consumer demand by the industries that experience the lack of production capacity. Thus, the timely identification of such industries is a crucial task for government agencies in order to promptly develop a set of preventive measures. The paper proposes the method to determine the optimal price, the deviation from which signals the rise or fall in scarcity. The calculation of the optimal price is carried out by finding the point of maximum added value of the industry for a given demand function. The model takes into account factors such as its elasticity and changes in the level of economic costs of production. Model experiments demonstrate the effect of a change in the slope coefficient of this function on the dynamics of the scarcity of industries. We also carried out the analysis of average annual and cumulative deficit in Russia, as well as the peculiarities of the behavior of each of the sectors presented in the “Input — Output” tables. Finally, the authors assess the degree of influence of global financial shocks, such as the 2008 crisis, on industries with elastic and inelastic demand. This model can be applied by the public sector in analyzing the current economic situation and creation of a financial development strategy.
In the investment programs of modern oil and gas companies (i.e., PJSC Lukoil Oil Company, PJSC Gazprom, PJSC Novatek), complex projects are gaining more and more attention, and in this case the efficiency for an investor should be assessed in terms of the overall effectiveness of projects. As an object of research, the authors consider a set of projects for the types of gas production and transportation activities. This paper studies the question of finding a discount rate with a focus on specific features of oil and gas industry. The relevance of the chosen topic is determined by the need to find a balanced rate of return of a complex investment project for inclusion in the investment portfolio of an oil and gas company. When evaluating the economic efficiency of complex projects that include subprojects of various types, such as mining or transportation, the discount rate of the entire project should be in balance with the regulatory rates for the types of activities presented in the project. In their work, the authors, drawing on the analysis of the formulas of the mathematical apparatus for calculating complex discount rate, propose a variant of calculating the internal rate of return (IRR) for a group of projects for which there is a formed level of normative values of IRR. The article is designed within the framework of economic research methods. The analysis of scientific literature and the comparative approach are combined with the use of methods of economic and mathematical modeling. The theoretical significance of the study consists in the description of the main postulates related to the analysis of profitability of investment projects in oil and gas industry. The practical significance lies in the development of approaches to determining the discount rate when assessing the economic efficiency of complex high-risk projects on the example of gas industry and the possibility of using these approaches in investment and strategic analysis of oil and gas companies.
The paper examines the cereal market of the Republic of Crimea, which is characterized by the lack of testing of scientific approaches to assessing the regional market in terms of influence on substitutes’ demand and by pronounced seasonality of sales. The methodology is based on economic and statistical methods using correlation and regression analysis tools. The article determines the state of the Crimean market for goods based on official statistics, explores the dynamics of changes in production volumes of grain crops and their processing into cereals, and assesses the prices for goods of the group under study, presented in the retail trade network as well as the indicators characterizing the regional market of cereal products. The authors identify major Crimean manufacturers whose products are represented in the distribution network, and consider the factors influencing the development of the cereal regional market. Based on the results of the study, the study identifies the groups of substitutes that form the structure of consumer demand, including pasta and fresh vegetables. Drawing on correlation analysis, the authors establish the dependence of sales volumes of cereals on the prices of substitutes. Using regression analysis, the authors present the forecast for further development of the regional cereals market. The novelty of the study lies in determining the degree of dependence of consumer demand when purchasing cereal products on the prices of seasonal substitute goods. Finally, the study shows a direct effect of the demand for cereals on the prices of fresh vegetables, with a positive sales growth trend in the region, where sustainable economic and political situation will affect the prices for socially important food products.
Since 2020, local tourism in Russian regions has been considered one of possible drivers of economic growth. However, it is not entirely clear why the tourism sector is growing in the regions that are considered unfavorable for business enterprises. This article aims to examine and describe the factors contributing to the establishment of tourist firms in new tourist regions and the obstacles that stand in the way of developing hospitality industry. The article presents the results of a field study conducted among representatives of tourism industry in Dagestan. In the course of work, we conducted semi-structured interviews with 24 entrepreneurs from different market segments and stages of tourist product creation: the organizers of guided tours, hotel owners, guest houses, and restaurants, as well as with state representatives. Field study shows that human resources and social capital is the most important resource used to build tourism business in Dagestan, as well as the availability of customer base. Physical capital is crucial only for opening tourist accommodations. At the same time, as the industry develops, more and more resources are needed to enter the market. The main barriers to tourism development are insufficient human resources and infrastructure and the loss of some sales channels in 2022. Current policy in promoting tourism development in the North Caucasus is not achieving its goals, representatives of the industry perceive the support provided as insufficient. The results of the study show that new tourist regions, where mass tourist flow appeared only with the beginning of the pandemic, may face a shortage of transport and sanitary infrastructure, and personnel training system. Thus, public policy measures aimed at eliminating these problems could be particularly effective.
FINANCIAL STUDIES
This paper confirms the informational value of deferred taxes for assessing tax accruals and their corresponding cash flows. Currently, many experts point out that recording tax effects distorts the perception of financial reality and does not lead to optimal business decisions, and modern research denies the connection of balance sheet deferred taxes with future cash flows at all. The above aspects are considered and tested for Russian organizations for the period of 2012–2018 using standard econometric analysis techniques. The inclusion of deferred tax factors leads to significant volatility in both tax accruals and tax cash flows, depending on which net deferred tax position is held by the economic entity. The findings show that with active positions, national organizations accrue almost 7.8–10.0% more and at the same time pay 8.1–8.7% less tax to the budget relative to other situations. Based on the confirmed hypotheses, the study develops a conceptual scheme to link tax accruals with deferred tax positions, which allows us to analyze the current corporate tax behavior of a company and its potential tax opportunities. The results show that the change in tax accruals in the structure of financial profit before tax on average increase tax cash flows 1.28–1.41 times, while tax accruals increase 0.46–0.54 times with a 1% increase in tax cash flows. The statistical significance of dividend (income payments to business owners) and investment policy (acquisition of non-current assets) factors for the evaluation of tax accruals and cash flows is also established. The findings provide a wide range of tools for further research in profit stability analysis, bankruptcy signs, and solvency of Russian organizations.
The article presents the review of scientific publications on combating money laundering (AML). The subject of the study is economic phenomena and processes that reveal the role of financial sector in AML. The purpose of the article is to provide scientific arguments for and against the encumbrance of financial organizations with anti-money laundering measures, to identify the research gaps in publications and to focus on their solution. Methodology and approach: database of e-library, ResearchGate, Academia conducted a systematic review of publications on AML with an emphasis on the specific features of various financial and non-financial institutions. The study identifies their main topics, such as the main resource of shadow economy, money laundering schemes, ML landscape, the role of banks in ML. The author provides an in-depth analysis of the publications indicated in the links of the selected articles as well as the gaps in research that should be studied in future. The paper reveals a promising direction of research, due to the lack of scientific publications on the problem of administering adequate punishment from regulatory authorities to individuals and banks for non-compliance with anti-money laundering norms, allowing to maintain a balance between the severity of punishment (in order to prevent future violations) and maintaining the stability of business processes in banks (in order to strengthen banking system reputation).