FINANCIAL STUDIES
The financialization of commodity markets leads to their integration with global financial markets and increasing inclusion in chains of transmission of systemic risk in the economy. Financial contagion is an atypical increase in the interdependence of financial markets under the influence of external shocks. The subject of this study is the financial contagion of global commodity markets (soft and agricultural goods) from the global energy market (oil and gas) during the pandemic, energy crisis and special military operation of Russia in Ukraine (SMO). The purpose of the study is to establish the facts of financial contagion, its dynamics and intensity for different groups of goods. The construction of the author's stress indices allows us to distinguish between periods of a calm market and increased market volatility. Testing for contagion is carried out using the construction of ARDL-GARCH models, dynamic method of co-moments of the returns distribution of the source market of contagion and the recipient market, including the calculation of conditional correlation, coskewness, cokurtosis and covolatility. A conclusion about possible contagion is made based on a comparison of test statistics with a critical value for a normal or asymptotically normal distribution. The study confirmed contagion of exchange-traded futures markets by oil and natural gas futures markets in all periods. Oil market showed greater contagiousness compared to the gas market; oil proved to be relatively uniformly contagious in different periods, while gas proved to be relatively more contagious during the SMO. Agricultural commodities have proven to be more susceptible to contagion from energy markets than soft commodities. Stronger market contagion occurs at higher co-moments of distribution (volatility contagion, return-volatility and return-asymmetry contagion) than at lower co-moments of distribution. The results obtained can be useful for investors in developing optimal hedging strategies and managing investment portfolios, and for the state in improving financial stabilization policies during periods of crisis.
The article examines the type of deviation of Russian ETF market value from the internal value of a similar portfolio of assets. Since the further task of identifying factors that significantly affect the deviation of the value of ETFs from the value of included assets is based on a type of deviation other than “«white noise»”, therefore, conducting this check is an important stage for market research. Thus, the purpose of the work is to test the possibility of decomposing deviations specified in the form of a difference or a ratio of costs into deterministic and random processes. At the same time, the deterministic component is most interesting for further research. As part of the work, the paper examines Russian and foreign prior studies on the description or analysis of ETF, with special attention to the works linking ETF and NAV in various markets. To check the deviation for belonging to the “«white noise»”, graphical analysis, analysis of correlograms and checking of time series for stationarity were carried out, as well as checking the deviation of the average from zero using the Student's t-test. Based on these checks, the hypothesis about the significance of deviations for the majority of the considered ETF was confirmed, that is, according to the results of the analysis, the hypothesis about the presence of random and deterministic parts in time series describing the deviation of the market value of Russian Exchange-traded Mutual Funds from the corresponding net asset value was confirmed. Therefore, this work is the starting point for further work concerning the analysis of the deviation in question. After the hypothesis is confirmed, attempts can be made to model dependencies and form trading strategies.
The paper examines the construction of an optimal portfolio based on an ESG (environmental, social and governance) rating. In the paper, the authors answer the question of how the ESG rating indicator affects the risk, return and Sharpe ratio of portfolios. Based on literature review, the authors conclude that there is an ambiguous relationship between ESG ratings, and the returns of the stocks included in the investment portfolio. To answer the research question, the authors apply regression analysis and use the method of constructing optimal portfolios based on Markowitz theory under the condition of maximising the Sharpe ratio. Drawing on the results of the study, the authors proved a negative relationship between stock returns and ESG ranking. It was determined that a portfolio composed of stocks with a high ESG rating has a lower return, volatility and beta coefficient compared to a portfolio composed of stocks with a low ESG rating. The Sharpe Ratio for the portfolio of high ESG stocks was lower in three of the six years under review, about equal in one year, and higher in the remaining two periods compared to the ratio for the portfolio of low ESG stocks.
BRANCH AND REGIONAL ECONOMY
Most of Russian oil and gas exports to foreign countries falls into five commodity groups of the Foreign Economic Activity Commodity Nomenclature: three are related to oil industry: 20900 (crude oil), 271019 (medium and heavy distillates, such as diesel fuel, kerosene, fuel oil, etc.), 271012 (light distillates: gasoline, etc.), two are related to gas industry: 271121 (natural gas) and 271111 (LNG). The purpose of this work is to assess changes in the main parameters of foreign trade in products of the Russian oil and gas sector in the context of a new wave of sanctions in 2022–2023, due to the SVO. First, the article provides an overview of the main sanctions imposed on the Russian oil and gas sector with an emphasis on modern period, and provides the classification of sanctions from unfriendly countries. Second, according to mirror customs statistics (customs statistics of Russia’s trading partners), the work assesses changes in the main parameters of foreign trade in products of the Russian oil and gas sector in the period after the start of the SVO: including an assessment of the number of trading partners, trade volumes and supply directions in the period before and after the start of a new wave of sanctions. Third, conclusions and recommendations based on the results of the analysis are formulated. The analysis shows that despite the fact that sanctions did not significantly affect the volume of export supplies of certain types of oil and gas industry products (including oil and LNG), they turned out to be quite effective in terms of reorientation of foreign trade flows of the Russian oil and gas industry and in terms of increasing the concentration of sales markets available to Russian companies.
The article provides an overview of the existing methodology for measuring shadow economy. On the one hand, the scale of shadow processes acts as an indicator of the degree of readiness of individuals and legal entities to carry out financial and economic activities in the legal field. On the other hand, hidden economic phenomena may indicate a deterioration of business climate and increased competition, and adequate methods are needed to assess shadow economy. Besides, the international statistical community has not yet reached a consensus on what shadow economy is and what types and results of economic activity should be included in it. As a result, there are no generally accepted methods for measuring the scale of hidden economic processes. Studies on this issue applying different methods are quite numerous both in Russian and foreign literature. Their findings do not allow to compare the scale of hidden economy between several countries and regions. In the article we consider the most commonly used methods to assess the possibility of their usage to measure the shadow economy in agriculture. The following approaches should be listed: direct and indirect methods, mathematical and econometric modeling. Drawing on the analysis of methods for measuring shadow economy, we came to the conclusion that the most reliable approach is the one which adjusts official statistical data for each individual type of economic activity and for each region (the subject of Russia). This practice has not yet become widespread in statistical circles.
The processes of cluster-network integration taking place in the economy at territorial macro-levels can be described as one of the directions in developing “smart” specialization. The concept of management at the level of individual business units is changing, focused on consistency and interdependence not only from external conditions, but also from business environment, whose subjects can significantly influence specialization, improving the quality of goods and services, changing the assortment range, uniting consumers. The agro-industrial complex of Russian regions is steadily developing on the basis of large diversified industries. The advantages are given to the enterprises that move from competition to consolidation and building up common advantages. The article presents an overview of scientific and theoretical approaches describing the concept of cluster-network integration of agro-industrial complex, the features and advantages of this process for various groups of subjects; the analytical part is based on the analysis of Rosstat materials. The paper examines the development trends of Russia’s leading agro-industrial clusters, developing within the framework of horizontal network integration. Based on methods of analysis, synthesis, scientific abstraction and modeling, the article develops a model of cluster-network integration of regional agro-industrial clusters. In the course of the study, conclusions were drawn about the uneven impact of cluster-network integration on the subjects of agroindustrial clusters, due to the scale of their activities, the direction of specialization, and the degree of participation in production. The general positive effects of clustering are the stability of activity and market demand, the build-up of unique network competencies, which are a resource for entrepreneurship. The conditions for the development of cluster-network integration at the level of government authorities, large corporate structures, and family entrepreneurship in agribusiness, the basis of which lies in the tactics and strategy of interests, are revealed. Agro-industrial clusters are developing in the directions of a full-cycle economy, increasing the resource base of agricultural land, compensating for personnel shortages through financial incentives. Cluster-network interaction makes it possible to consolidate the resource potential of subjects of various specializations in order to obtain high-quality goods under conditions of mutual control and benefits.
Dynamic development of scientific and technological progress is a factor in changing the views of scientists regarding objects, processes and phenomena characteristic of an organization, which gives rise to new interpretations of the concepts of economic categories and the emergence of new scientific trends. In 1970-2023, the number of approaches and interpretations of the concept of “productive potential” increased. Initially the category was considered only from the position of an industrial enterprise, but now the concept can take into account not only industry aspects, but also multilevel — enterprise, industry, economy as a whole. It should be noted that there is no common understanding of the structure and main elements of the production potential of an agricultural organization. Today, the view of production processes in the agricultural sector is constructively changing and the reason for this is the scale of market saturation with multi-format digital technologies, which predetermined the need for this study. The purpose of the study was to reveal the transforming approaches to the concept of “production potential”, the change in its structure and composition over a number of years, as well as the current impact on this process of digitalization of agriculture. The findings can serve as a justification of the approach to the generation of production potential of an agricultural organization from the position of implementing digital innovations and creating its digital ecosystem, which will make it possible to carry out a technological upgrade and increase competitive advantages.
ECONOMIC THEORY
The article examines the issues related to modern state and its policy in the context of the societal crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the consequences of which can hardly be overestimated, especially in connection with the economic recovery. The methodological basis of the work is the analysis of current scientific publications and expert assessments on the issues of the current societal crisis caused by the fall in material security of citizens, rising unemployment and the formation of post-COVID reality. The article interprets the concept of a «societal crisis» and considers the conditions generating economic and social crises worldwide. The analysis of epinomic policy of the state to ensure interaction between society, state and individuals is carried out. The authors argue that the pandemic has revealed the actual inability of most of world's states to effectively withstand emergencies that threaten the lives of millions of citizens and at the same time made obvious miscalculations in both the economic and social policies of the state. On this basis, the authors identify the fundamental problem of modern socio-economic systems, which consists in ignoring the need for the state to ensure a dialectical interaction between society and economy. It is substantiated that the problems considered in the work have not only a theoretical basis, but are also of an applied nature, since assessing the behavior of the state was previously impossible due to the absence of situations similar to the COVID-19 pandemic. The findings aim at determining the possibility of changing the functions of the state in socio-economic system as a result of reducing the level of uncertainty in future reality by creating a more inclusive social environment, and contribute to the development of economic theory, the theory of state and public administration.
MANAGEMENT ISSUES
In 2024, Russian marketplaces are experiencing a decline in the growth rate of sellers on their platforms due to an increasing trend towards the D2C (Direct-to-Consumer) distribution model. The objective of this study is to identify the main determinants of sellers' choice of marketplaces to enhance strategies for attracting small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to major Russian marketplaces, such as Ozon, Wildberries, Yandex.Market, and Megamarket. Current strategies employed by these platforms do not adequately address the needs and interests of SMEs, resulting in difficulties in attracting new sellers. The authors have systematized the approaches to defining the D2C distribution model within the e-commerce market through 12 in-depth interviews and content analysis, and have identified the factors influencing sellers' channel selection based on a sample of 443 respondents using factor analysis and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). Assessing the impact of identified factors on sellers' choices between their own online platforms and marketplaces was conducted through regression analysis. The findings of the study culminate in a set of recommendations intended at adapting strategies for attracting sellers to e-commerce platforms, particularly marketplaces. These recommendations include the development of introductory courses for new sellers, media strategies to inform about marketplace opportunities, enhancement of support and consulting functions, reduction of entry barriers, provision of flexible marketing tools, loyalty programs for sellers, improved logistical support, and the organization of regular training events.
Turkey is one of major successful European and global players in the automotive market, and its domestic automotive market is a vivid example of a rapid recovery from economic crises. In 2020, Turkey became the only European country to increase domestic car sales compared to the previous year. To identify the reasons for these successes, the authors analyze Turkish automotive market for 2012-2022, the dynamics of competitive situation in the market as a whole and within the leading group of automotive manufacturers, as well as the actions of automakers and the Turkish government. The Linda index (to determine the core of the market and key players), the SV (strength/variety) matrix to analyze the dynamics of competition in the market under consideration, as well as the Herfindahl-Hirschman coefficient were used as research methods. The study shows that (1) macroeconomic events that affected the absolute level of car sales did not significantly affect the distribution of market shares among the leading players; (2) the strategy for mutually beneficial cooperation with global automotive holdings, when Turkey created joint ventures with foreign firms allowed the country to ensure sustainable competitiveness in the world market; (3) the competitive situation in Turkish automotive market over the past 10 years is characterized by a highly dynamic behavior of leaders, a stable growth of their aggregate market share, increasing differentiation between the main players.
The article presents a comprehensive analysis of gender inequality in the labor market in Kazakhstan. The study is unique since it takes into account the realities of Kazakhstan and the nuances of various aspects of gender inequality. The goal of the article is to assess the changes in this area over the past decades and to offer recommendations for their elimination. Using the method of descriptive statistics for data analysis, the authors conduct a detailed study of gender inequality, including a review of modern scientific works on various aspects of this problem. Special attention is given to serious regional differences in wages, especially in industrial and developed regions, where this gap has been most noticeable, as well as to the nuances of employment distribution across different sectors of the economy. The analysis identified fluctuating gender inequality index in Kazakhstan, with improvements not always noticeable, underscoring the difficult path of establishing gender equality over the decades. The article also notes the insufficient representation of women in leadership positions. The authors emphasize that these problems are rooted in gender stereotypes and sociocultural barriers. The findings can be used to develop more effective strategies to combat gender inequality in Kazakhstan and beyond, as well as to stimulate further research in this area. The conclusions focus on the need for a comprehensive approach to solving the problem of gender inequality and creating conditions for equal opportunities for all labor market participants.
DEMOGRAPHIC STUDIES
Foreign demographic and marketing studies show that online dating services are gaining popularity among young people, especially among university students. At the same time, there has not been a unified classification of goals and motives for dating online which are important both for understanding aspects of population’s marital behavior and for developing such services. In Russian scientific discourse, the topic of meeting students through online dating services remains underexplored. This study is aimed at identifying the main goals of dating in the context of long-term (marriage, having children, love and friendship) and shortterm dating and analyzing the influence of demographic characteristics of Russian students on them. The survey involved 3085 students who had experience in online dating. In the first step, probabilistic probit models were built with 8 dating targets. In the second step, based on factor analysis, dating goals were grouped and additional analysis was carried out on strengthened groups of long-term and short-term dating goals. The following modeling results were obtained: (1) men more often than women pursue both short-term and long-term aims; (2) the popularity of short-term relationships in online space grows with the age of a student; (3) students at universities in the capital are more inclined to get acquainted with long-term goals; (4) marriage, birth and/or raising children is not a priority for students. Yet, longterm relationships with a partner among students are more widespread than short-term ones.
INTERDISCIPLINARY STUDIES
The implementation of «The Scientific and Technological Development Strategy of the Russian Federation» and national projects is impossible without an inflow of new entrepreneurs. Young people including students are most active in business creation among the entire Russian people. The object of this study is students’ entrepreneurial intentions, and the subject is external factors that influence its formation. The empirical basis is a survey of 1917 students from various faculties of Moscow State University who took courses on entrepreneurship and the creation of technological startups in the period of 2020-2024. We confirmed the connection of students' entrepreneurial intentions with the following factors: the presence of entrepreneurs in the family or in the surroundings, societal assessment of entrepreneurial career, the university environment and the direction of study. We find that the proportion of students who have opened or plan to open a business in the short term is higher among students who have entrepreneurs in their family or among friends. The number of students with entrepreneurs in their surroundings is increasing with each additional year of study. More than half of students positively perceive how the public assesses the choice of an entrepreneur's career, while the presence of entrepreneurs in surroundings significantly affects this perception. We reveal that the students studying in such areas as business and management, public administration and political science have the highest indicators of entrepreneurial intentions, with minimal indicators belonging to chemistry, law and economics. We determine which factors can be influenced to stimulate the entrepreneurial intentions implementation among students, who will have an important role in the development of technological entrepreneurship and commercialization of scientific developments in near future.
PROFESSOR’S TRIBUNE
The article substantiates the content, format, and positioning in the curriculum of a new academic course on entrepreneurship theory and entrepreneurial activity regulation at the Faculty of Economics of Lomonosov Moscow State University. We offer a specialized course as a tool to develop higher economic education in two directions. The first relates to filling the gaps in the competencies of professional economists, which they need when considering the role of an entrepreneur in economic processes. The situations of individual choice under structural uncertainty faced by an entrepreneur play an important role in the transformation of global and national economies, including the process of its’ adaptation to external shocks. The proposed theoretical academic course complements disciplines related to entrepreneurship and forms students' professional competencies useful for entrepreneurial activities. The second direction, no less important, is the development of intradisciplinary discourse. It is proposed to use the entrepreneurial activity and its regulation as a subject to discuss and compare the positions of different research programs (using specific examples). This will allow future professional economists, including those who do not associate their careers with research, to partially master the language of intradisciplinary communication. This mission of the course is important because it helps to significantly enrich the set of theoretical tools used in practice by a wide range of economists at minimal costs for them. This is especially relevant given the fact that students are just getting acquainted with economic science, and its’ holistic vision has not yet been formed among the listeners.
ACADEMIC LIFE
The article offered to the reader is an overview of the fourth session of the VIII International Political Economic Congress, named after A. V. Buzgalin, «Russian Economic System: Contradictions and Development Potential,» held on May 16-17, 2024, as part of the VI Moscow Academic Economic Forum. The session was dedicated to four significant anniversaries: the 220th anniversary of the Department of Political Economy in Lomonosov Moscow State University, the 120th anniversary of the birth of N.A. Tsagolov, the 100th anniversary of the birth of V.N. Cherkovets and the 70th anniversary of the birth of A.V. Buzgalin. Addressing the history, the speakers noted the significance of outstanding scientists, the leaders of the department who were at the top of developing economic theory in the 19th century. This tradition was continued in the Soviet time. Special place in it belongs to the Tsagolov School, the significance of which in the history of economic science was determined by methodological independence and self-sufficiency, with the development of the system of laws and categories of political economy as the main result of its activity. Special attention at the session was paid to the creative path of V.N. Cherkovets, one of the brightest representatives of the Tsagolov School. Congress participants highly appreciated the work of A.V. Buzgalin, an effective follower of the Tsagolov School, who created an independent direction in economic science. His main work, which condenced the main ideas, was the two-volume book «Global Capital,» co-authored with A.I. Kolganov. The main conclusion that follows from the materials of the session is that political economy and the Tsagolov School are still relevant today, in a more complex theoretical and geopolitical configuration of world development, and political economy was and remains a fundamental science that systematizes the ongoing processes in the context of their renewal.