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Moscow University Economics Bulletin

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No 2 (2024)
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SUSTAINABLE ISSUES

3-20 276
Abstract

The article examines the development of mesoeconomic approach to the analysis of economics and its scientific potential. Addressing the specifics of mesoeconomic approach development, the author considers the evolution of ideas about mesoeconomics in foreign and domestic literature and demonstrates the three approaches to the problem explored in foreign literature: from the point of view of regional economics, institutional theory and methodological approach. It shows that, taking into account the ideas of foreign authors, Russian scientists have significantly expanded the field of scientific research in mesoeconomics, which has embodied in a number of scientific areas that tend to separate from each other. Exploring the reasons behind the interest in mesoeconomics and paying tribute to the achievements of domestic science, the author explores whether mesoeconomics can become a new direction in economic analysis. The author draws attention to the limitations of evolutionary approach to the problems of mesoeconomics, albeit acknowledging it as the necessary and possible solution. Considering the demand for expanding the analysis tools for the new phenomena in the modern economy, the article concludes that mesoeconomics has a significant scientific potential. Its implementation involves determining the nature of the subjects that form the mesospace, as well as establishing the causes of their occurrence. The author sees the reason in contradiction generated by modern hypercompetition — the need for continuous innovative leadership and the impossibility of providing this alone, which is resolved through the emergence of a fundamentally new form of production — intra-production cooperation of specialised, legally and economically independent firms.

FINANCIAL STUDIES

21-45 262
Abstract

The article attempts to determine whether the increase in debt burden reduces the costs of agency conflicts in Russian public companies with various types of ownership. The subject is the relationship between the share of debt in the capital structure and the costs of agency conflicts. The main goal is to develop the ways to reduce the costs of agency conflicts in Russian companies by managing the capital structure, taking into account the ownership structure of these companies. To achieve this goal, the authors present the results of an empirical study to identify the impact of debt in Russian public companies on reducing the costs of agency conflicts, depending on the type of ownership structure. New results obtained during an empirical study of 109 Russian public companies for the period from 2016 to 2020 prove the influence of company's capital structure on the level of agency costs. Thus, it has been proven that debt has a significant negative impact on the costs of agency conflicts in companies with state, managerial and institutional types of ownership. The concentration of managerial ownership is also of high importance. The authors argue that debt is more effective at low (<25%) concentration of management ownership. In addition, the study proves a non-linear relationship between debt and the costs of agency conflicts. Accordingly, in order to increase the effectiveness of this instrument, it is necessary to find the optimal capital structure (for electric power companies, it is about 37%, while for other industries – about 25%). Finally, the authors offer recommendations regarding the management of capital structure in Russian companies in order to reduce the costs of agency conflicts. These results can be used in joint-stock companies by both shareholders and management to reduce the consequences of agency problem in companies.

46-74 216
Abstract

The relevance of the article is due to the introduction since 01.01.2024 in the Russian Federation of a long-term savings program for citizens as a substitute for the funded part of pension frozen since 2014. The main reason for the freeze was inefficiency of the saving system, namely negative real investment returns. In the article, we consider the activities of state regulator for regulating investment activities of pension funds and its contribution to the effectiveness of long-term saving program being introduced for citizens and whether the created system will be resistant to external shocks such as COVID-19. Applying Markovitz portfolio modeling to leading international stock indices and comparing the results with the data of pension savings investment in the Russian Federation, the article provides findings concerning the need to change the principles of state regulation of pension savings investment in terms of easing geographical and instrumental restrictions. Building on the findings of Nepp et al. (2022) on short-term nature of COVID-19 impact on financial markets, we apply a differential equation in the Cauchy form, used in physical processes for the research impulse effects, to determine the impact of a short-term external shock on the example of the coronavirus pandemic on funded pension systems. It is proved that in case of a long saving period, significantly exceeding the duration of the influence of an external shock, its impact on funded pension systems can be neglected.

75-94 206
Abstract

In this article volatility as a measure of risk is considered by the author as the main problem of modern portfolio theory and not as a risk in its traditional sense. The author proposes to introduce the concepts of volatility risk and risk of capital loss, as well as their interpretation in order to distinguish the situations in portfolio investment, when the risk in the form of volatility (standard deviation) according to Markowitz portfolio theory is implied and when there is a real threat of capital loss by the investor. The purpose of the study is to revise the existing concept of assessing the measure of risk in portfolio investment in the form of volatility. The subject of the study is the economic relations formed in the process of formation of investment portfolios and assessment of their risk in the securities market. The theoretical and methodological basis of the study are the concepts and approaches formulated by domestic and foreign authors dealing with formation and assessment of risk of portfolio investments, as well as historical-logical and economic-mathematical analysis of stock market volatility and investment portfolio to prove that volatility is not a risk of capital loss in its traditional sense. The result of the study is a revision of the provisions of modern portfolio theory, which consists in considering volatility as the main measure of risk in portfolio investment, as well as raising the issue of the need to develop conceptually different methods of risk assessment in the securities market. The results obtained by the author, the proposed evidence of the imperfection of modern portfolio theory in the form of risk assessment through volatility can be useful for further research in the field of development of other approaches to the calculation of risk component of investment portfolios in the stock market.  

95-111 235
Abstract

Ecosystem and platform business models are becoming one of the dominant organizational forms changing the landscape of financial industry, the form and content of relations between actors. Variability of business models and architecture of financial ecosystems (platforms), due to organizational changes accompanying the development of fintech, determines the multiplicity of scenarios for implementing credit relations in their circuit. Part of these relationships, limited by the scale of the agro-industrial complex, is defined as the subject area of this study, and its goal is to develop algorithms and models for the implementation of credit relations, taking into account the opportunities provided by existing and promising ecosystem solutions in the financial and agricultural markets.

The research methodology is based on existing cases and approaches to the regulation of financial ecosystems (platforms), as well as the author's hypothesis about the prospects of incorporating business processes (including lending) within industry value chains and e-government services into a single ecosystem solution for the agro-industrial complex, which determines the logic of the results.

It has been revealed that ecosystem forms of credit relations realization are characterized by the participation in intermediation of information and financial flows of intermediaries of a special kind - financial ecosystems (platforms), with varying degrees of variability involved in the conclusion and implementation of a credit transaction. The resulting information and network effects make it possible to identify four possible ecosystem forms of implementing credit relations in the agro-industrial complex: digital platforms that implement the technological service of searching and comparing credit products; financial platforms (marketplaces) for legal entities; financial marketplaces with blockchain platforms; infrastructure industry ecosystem built on the collaboration of public and private services. The author shows evolution of the form and subject composition of credit relations for each option. The algorithm for implementing credit relations developed on the basis of the results obtained can be used in practical implementation of the idea of an infrastructural industry ecosystem that provides a proactive mode of state support for concessional lending to the agro-industrial complex.

BRANCH AND REGIONAL ECONOMY

112-129 402
Abstract

In recent years, Russia has been steadily increasing the production and export of grain, becoming one of its largest suppliers to the world market. The specific feature of Russian grain market is high uncertainty of its conjuncture. The purpose of the study is to identify the most significant factors influencing the situation on the Russian grain market by identifying the most popular news topics. The object of the study is the audience of specialized information and analytical site ≪Zerno On-Line≫, the subject is its thematic preferences. The author first systematizes the factors of greatest impact on the grain market. He then highlights news topics related to market factors and keywords in the headline of news dedicated to these topics, and identifies the most popular topics based on counting the number of views of news items published during the five growing seasons. The study shows that most significant factors for grain market participants are prices, government policy on grain market and the level of investment activity. Among government measures that determine the situation on the grain market, we can name interventions and export restrictions (duties and quotas). Supply is of the least importance for grain market participants. Factors such as acreage and sowing progress have little effect on the grain market. The results of the study also show that the attention of market participants to ongoing processes varies seasonally and coincides with the dynamics of business activity. However, when information field is oversaturated with one topic, interest in it decreases. The results of the study can be used to draw up economic forecasts, business plans, as well as to adjust state regulation of the grain market.

130-152 204
Abstract

RF State Duma Committee for Energy launched an initiative to raise investment attractiveness of regions through transmission tariffs decrease by consolidated tariff approval in neighboring regions, having widely different transmission tariffs. However, positive effect in the region with decreased tariff is associated with the negative effect in the region with increased tariff. To make a cumulative effects assessment for regions where transmission consolidated tariff approval is planned, the correlation between GRP power intensity and regional electricity at-market value is to be proved, and other regional criteria expose too. At the state level, it is determined that one of the challenges to energy security is the transition of the Russian Federation to a new model of socio-economic development. These changes should ensure balanced spatial and regional development. At the same time, differences in the electricity price for production consumption may affect the balance of regional development. The paper presents research results of GRP power intensity dependence on an average regional electricity at-market value (for non-household consumers), including network tariff and other regional factors. The research is based on data of regional electric power consumption and gross regional product values of 78 Russian Federation regions for every year of 2014-2019 period after Power Sector Reform completion. For region scale the authors calculate factors of normalized GRP power intensity, a share of regional power consumption by energy-intense branches, a normalized employment to GRP. The calculation of normalized GRP power intensity applies all economic activities integrated demand (business electricity consumption) and eliminates electric line power losses and household consumption. 3-factor models of normalized GRP power intensity were calculated for every year of 2014-2019 period by weighted least squares. Negative partial regression coefficient of normalized GRP power intensity dependence on regional electricity at-market value confirm a hypothesis that a lower at-market value region has a greater normalized GRP power intensity.

153-176 215
Abstract

The article examines the problems of emergence and implementation of illegal labor relations  between national economic entities an d international mi grants. Migration processes carry potential and real threats to national and economic security. Therefore, the state needs to assess the risks of all illegal manifestations of migration and take a number of reactive and proactive measures aimed at minimizing t hem. The paper studies illegal  labor activities of migrants, assesses the number of illegal labor migrants aimed at minimizing the risks from their labor activities. The purpose of the study is to develop methodological approaches to assess the risks of the state from illegal labor activities of migrants (based on their quantitative determination )  as a mechanism for countering illegal migration processes in the system of Russia’s economic security. The study is based on the works of Russian and foreign researchers in the  field  of risk-management, economic security, illegal migration and illegal migrants’ labor activities. The information base of the study are the statistical and analytical materials of the services of international and national statistics. The article emphasizes the need to systematically assess state risks  by identifying illegal labor relations of migrants. The practical significance and scientific novelty of the study is determined by the possibility of implementing methodological  recommendations  f or assessing the number of  illegal labor migrants in the strategy an d program  for ensuring the economic security of the country throuh implementing relevant mechanisms to counteract illegal migration processes.

177-204 571
Abstract

Air passenger transportation industry is dynamically expanding, and  a l though  t h e emergence of new airline companies is rare, existing  companies are actively competing for routes. Firm's entry  into a new destination can speak  for its profitability, which cannot be directly  observed, so entry  patterns can provide additional information about the market that is other wise  difficult to obtain. The study is  based  on Russian domestic flights  data, route characteristics, and airline market presence characteristics to identify   factors that may influence airline's likelihood of entering a route. Using this dataset, we estimate the entry model proposed earlier (Berry, 1992 ). To identify the factors affecting airline entry on a route between two cities wihin Russia, we use probit. To validate our results we use machine  learning algorithms to solve a  binary choice problem. The results obtained are partly consistent with the results of previous studies: there is a significant positive effect of population and the number of tourist cities on the route (proxies for demand ). Also, a variable characterizing the presence of the airline at the airports of the route in the previous period has a significant positive effect on the probability of air line enter a route. Un like the studies on European an d US  data, our paper shows a negative effect of distance on entry probability, which can be explained by the peculiarities of Russian  geography. This conclusion is important for effective policy making in Russian regions especially in promoting tourism and  developing passenger transportation .

MANAGEMENT ISSUES

205-233 221
Abstract

Strategic capabilities are a crucial subject of scientific research which attracts attention of both academic and business community since they explain organization's competitive edge. Despite the substantial progress in exploring strategic capabilities since its inception, the academic discourse remains fragmented with diverse interpretations and methodologies for defining and categorizing this concept. This divergence hampers a cohesive understanding and application of strategic capabilities in enhancing organizational competitiveness. Consequently, this paper aims to consolidate the knowledge on strategic capabilities, offering a modern perspective on how they serve as a driving force for competitive performance. This analysis provides the underlying theories on strategic capabilities, scrutinizing various definitions, classifications, and models. The choice of publications is based on key words, publication period, quotation index and quality of journals. The findings allow to trace the evolution of ≪strategic capabilities≫ concept, offer a novel framework for its interpretation, and integration with key elements that underpin an organization's competitive stature. The empirical results offer tangible benefits to business community by elucidating the core elements of competitive advantage, their interplay, and evaluation. The approach to defining and classifying strategic capabilities, alongside conceptual network developed herein prove the depth of previous research and charts new paths for future study of strategic capabilities.

234-263 259
Abstract

The paper develops and tests models of consumer loyalty formation in relation to online services based on empirical research data. This study is one of the first in the Russian academic environment to empirically test the relationship between loyalty and various factors forming consumer loyalty. Most publications in Russia used theoretical methods of studying constructs (for example, a literary review and its variations, such as a narrative or a systematic review). The published empirical studies mainly focused on identifying these factors with no attempts to test the relationship between them. The authors examine the factors which influence (positively or negatively) the intention and loyalty of users of online services. The article uses a quantitative method – an online survey attended by active users of the Internet and online services (more than 350 respondents). The final sample is sufficient to test the hypotheses using quantitative data analysis: structural equation modeling (in particular Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling, PLSSEM). At the same time, in this study, the authors rely on important aspects of consumer loyalty formation related to digital security, trust and other important factors. The results of the study demonstrate a significant positive effect of trust in online service and the perceived usefulness of online service on consumer loyalty, while psychological discomfort when using the online service has a negative impact. The perceived level of control over the input data and the security of data entry do not have a significant impact. The scale formed as a result of the study can be used to further develop the theory of consumer loyalty in the Russian market.

INTERDISCIPLINARY STUDIES

264-290 221
Abstract

This study examines the concept of willingness to pay in the context of neuroeconomic approach. As an additional factor influencing consumer’s willingness to pay for food products (in particular, chocolate), the author proposes to include a cognitive neuro-response. For this aim, the author first theoretically substantiates the need to include an additional factor in the list of potential predictors of willingness to pay and systematizes neuroeconomic research in terms of neurometrics used and individual brain areas involved in making decisions about willingness to pay. The author then conducts neuroeconomic experiments using electroencephalography and empirically analyzes neurometrics that play a significant role in decision-making on willingness to pay. The experimental data are further used for regression and factor analyzes to assess consumers' willingness to pay for chocolate. The results obtained demonstrate the importance of cognitive neuro-response and activity of the frontal zone of the brain in the process of deciding about willingness to pay. Thus, the main contribution of this study is to improve the understanding of how brain activity may be an additional predictor of willingness to pay, and to demonstrate a way to increase the explanatory power of the willingness-to-pay model for chocolate. The results of this work may be used by researchers, practitioners, manufacturers and chocolate products marketeers, as well as chocolate consumers to develop effective marketing strategies and make informed decisions about willingness to pay.

ECONOMIC THEORY

291-311 199
Abstract

The article examines the key factors of instability in the first half of the twentieth century, clarifies the conditions under which national industrial crises become global. The analysis of the works of famous Russian economists helps to reveal the algorithms of the development of industrial and global crises, to characterize their features. The author argues that with the rise of money, the contradiction between supply and demand increases many times, and the cyclical nature of economic development becomes a permanent process in the capitalist system. Free migration of loan capital accelerates the development of global overproduction crises. The article suggests that the processes of transformation of technological structures in capitalist reproduction system create prerequisites for the development of a special type of economy — ≪military economy≫. The concepts of ≪military economy≫ and ≪military conjuncture≫ are formulated. It is shown that ≪military economy≫ leads (in addition to huge human and material losses) to a number of systemic changes in the national economy of the country: narrowing of the sphere of civil production, budget deficit, growth of public debt and the deformation of pre-crisis proportions of national economy. First experiences of such market regulation relate to World War I and World War II. The author considers the specific function of monetary instruments in conditions of ≪military conjuncture≫, reveals the economic meaning of ≪price revolution≫ concept of the monetary ≪version≫ put forward by M.I. Tugan- Baranovsky as a systemic factor of economic distress in emergency situations. The author concludes that global crises, the demonetization of gold and its displacement by credit exchange marks in the first half of the twentieth century, the transition to new technological structures are changing the forms of integration and creating conditions for changing the political and economic ≪map≫ of the world. The result of the ≪war economy≫ development during major world conflicts is the change of currency leaders and the accumulation of gold and foreign exchange reserves, the ≪redistribution≫ of sales markets and technological re-equipment of production.



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ISSN 0130-0105 (Print)